Usage vs efficiency for NBA's highest-usage players

Here's how the NBA's 25 highest-usage players stack up in efficiency for the 2016-17 season (as of March 7):

It's hard to describe what Russell Westbrook is doing, except to say he's simply playing a different sport than everyone else. Has anyone every combined impact and inefficiency to this extent before?

The most prolific three-point shooters, 2013-2015

You're not going to believe who's at the peak of these charts. #MVP

(Having trouble seeing the charts? Click here.)
All stats from Basketball Reference.

Some quick takeaways:

• Is there any way we can get Kyle Korver on the same team with Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry? Maybe just for a week or something? Sorry Hawks fans - I'm not trying to antagonize you, I promise. I just want to see my own head explode.
• Danny Green is not just A Product Of The Spurs System (TM). He's an amazing shooter with serious flammability potential in any game. 
• I expected Damian Lillard to be higher in efficiency. Maybe that's just me.
• Some players I didn't expect to see so high: Joe Johnson, J.R. Smith, and Randy Foye.

Why Josh Smith just became unemployed

I mean, I know it's more complicated than this, but...

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Thanks for the memories, Detroit Josh Smith. Your move, Kemba Walker.

PS - Yep, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are really that intergalactic. James Harden and Stephen Curry are pretty friggin' special, too.

How this year's title contenders compare to past NBA champions

There are, by my count, eight legitimate (or semi-legitimate) title contenders in the NBA this year - seven teams that are winning more than 2/3 of their games, plus the Warriors who are 7th in overall efficiency. I wanted to look at how those contenders compare to the past ten NBA champions in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

I'm using offensive (defensive) efficiency index, which basically means comparing each team's points scored (allowed) per 100 possessions to their league average that year. A higher offensive index (and lower defensive index) is better.

Here we go - and remember, teams want to be as close to the top right corner of this chart as possible:

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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

•  Everyone considers the 2014 Heat legitimate title contenders - and rightfully so, given their track record and ability to seemingly "turn it on" in the playoffs. (And presumably more minutes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.) And it seems an increasing number of fans and media are placing the Clippers and Rockets into the contender bucket as well, especially with how well Blake Griffin played in Chris Paul's absence, and Dwight Howard's impact on the Rockets' half-court D. But it's worth noting that no champion in the past 10 years as been as average on defense as the 2014 Heat, Clips, or Rockets. Every one of those recent champs was at least 4% better on defense than the league average, and half of them were at least 7% better than average. The Clips are actually tied with the 2006 Heat right now, so it's certainly possible they overtake them soon. Now for the optimists out there, take a gander at those three teams on offense -  they're more efficient compared to their peers than any recent champ, except for last year's Heat squad. This year's playoffs could be more offense-first than any recent edition.
• Except that Indiana is prominently involved. This year's Pacers aren't LIKE the 2004 Pistons - they ARE the 2004 Pistons. The raw numbers (and the early-season ascent of Paul George) might mask that fact, but consider how the league has evolved over the past decade. The average team in 2004 scored 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and in no season since then has the average been below 104.6 pts / 100 possessions. This year, the league average is a hair under 106 pts / 100 possessions. When you account for more dynamic offense across the board, Indiana this year looks even better on defense (thanks, Roy Hibbert!) - and even worse on offense.
• The Spurs and Thunder. I mean, what is there to say? They've probably been the most impacted by injuries (Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker) of any of this year's top 8, and yet they still sport the best balance of elite offense and really superb defense. I don't think most fans recognize how incredible Tim Duncan has been on both ends of the court this year - he's top-five in the NBA in both blocks and defensive rebounding while leading the Spurs in total minutes. As for OKC, I'm really intrigued by the proximity of this year's squad to the 2009 Lakers on this chart - that seems like an excellent comp, in terms of one elite scorer (though Kevin Durant is more efficient than Kobe Bryant five years ago), an All-Star #2 on offense, and an underrated smothering defense.
• Maybe I should stop calling the Blazers a contender. Adjusted for pace and season, they're less efficient on defense than the "Seven Seconds or Less" 2006 Suns. And their Damian Lillard-fueled offense is outstanding... but still only 4th-best in the NBA. That's not a recipe for winning two payoff rounds, much less four.
• The Warriors, though - OK, they have to make the playoffs first. Fine. But the defense is right in line with championship standards. On the other side of the ledger, raise your hand if you thought a Stephen Curry-led offense would be less relatively efficient than the 2005 Spurs.

Data sources: NBA.com/stats, basketball-reference.com

Driving to the basket: Who's the best?

Here are the 25 NBA players (through Jan 20) who drive to the basket the most, mapped against their FG% on those drives. (NBA.com defines drives as "any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.")

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Some takeaways:

• In terms of sheer volume of drives, Tony Parker, Ty Lawson and Monta Ellis are in a class by themselves. They also produce quality along with that quantity, albeit each in different ways. Lawson is excellent at finishing, but even better at setting up teammates with drive-and-kicks; no one in the NBA produces more team points directly from drives than Ty's 13.1 ppg. Parker, with his array of floaters and either-hand layups and scoops, is the best pure finisher of the trio. And Monta is the best (this year, at least) at drawing fouls from drives. He's actually leading the league with 8.0 individual ppg from drives.
• Jeremy Lin, everybody! This chart highlights Lin's biggest strength - the ability to drive and finish creatively. He may be a third guard at this point, but what a third guard. By the way, look at Lin, James Harden, and Chandler Parsons all bunched together on this chart. They're combining for 22 drives per game, shooting a combined 53% on those drives, and obviously hitting each other for open threes along the way. That's an incredibly efficient, dynamic foundation for an offense... especially with Dwight Howard waiting inside.
• Maybe LeBron James should be driving to the basket more? Maybe we could say the same (to a lesser extent) about Kevin Durant? The truth is, of course, that even for the two best drive-finishers in the game, it's a bit more complicated than that. Driving takes energy, and it's hard to achieve when the entire defense is focused on you. I expect both of them will penetrating a lot more in the playoffs. They'll be playing more minutes, and playing those minutes with Dwayne Wade and Russell Westbrook, respectively, should open up the court.
• Five of the six lowest on this chart in terms of FG% are quick guards who aren't necessarily known for their strength (except perhaps Dion Waiters, but he has the separate problem of not actually knowing how to play basketball). That's not to say guys like Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague and Kemba Walker aren't valuable on drives, but that they're a little easier to control from a team defense perspective than guards like Parker and Lawson.
• Damian Lillard isn't far from being the perfect offensive point guard, and he's already at the helm of the best offense in the NBA right now. But his troubles finishing drives are probably his biggest limitation right now. If he can improve to just league-average at that, combined with Portland's other three-point shooters and LaMarcus Aldridge draining shots from the elbow and post... oof. Good luck stopping that.

UPDATE: A Tableau user named "RS" extended my data by looking at teammate points per drive and overall points generated. Check out his / her awesome work here.

The five most improved NBA offenses - and five that have plummeted

Here's a chart of how every team's offensive efficiency has changed from 2012-13 to 2013-14, as measured by points scored per 100 possessions. (Through the games of Jan 16. Thanks to NBA.com/stats for the data.) The five teams in green have shown the most improvement, while the five in orange have decreased efficiency the most. The NBA average is in purple.

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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Looking at the 5 most improved:

1. Blazers: Thanks to Wesley Matthews, Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum, Portland is second in the NBA in both 3-point attempts and percentage. No one else is hitting more than 10 threes a game. And no other team is hitting 82% of their free throws either.
2. Suns: Phoenix had the 2nd-worst offense in the league last year. Now they're in the top ten. How? Losing Michael Beasley helped (a lot). So did spacing the floor with at least 3 shooters all the time. Gerald Green, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, Channing Frye and Marcus Morris are each taking at least three 3PA per game - and each is hitting at least 35%. Kudos to Jeff Hornacek.
3. Timberwolves: A healthy Kevin Love. Kevin Martin doing K-Mart things. Nikola Pekovic bruising people inside (53% FG). It's a dynamic offense that also doesn't give away possessions (3rd-lowest turnover rate in the NBA).
4. Wizards: The worst offense in the league last season (and especially brutal without John Wall), Washington is now just slightly below-average. When healthy, they're big, athletic, and can space the floor juuuust enough to succeed.
5. Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki is back to being his hyper-efficient self. Monta Ellis played out of his mind for the first two months. And Jose Calderon is hitting 47% of his threes. Yowza.

And the 5 teams that have plummeted the most on offense:

1. Knicks: Last year, New York led the league by a mile in 3PA, and had the 5th-best 3p%. This year they're 8th in attempts and 17th in percentage from downtown. So they must be trying to make it up inside, right? Nope: dead last in free throw attempts and 22nd in 2P%. This offense has to be elite to compensate for the Knicks' myriad issues on defense. Right now, it's not even leaue-average.
2. Bucks: Wait, is Milwaukee actually missing Brandon Jennings? I don't know if I'd go that far... except that their three highest-usage players (Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo and Gary Neal) are shooting a combined 41% on all two-pointers. The guards don't get the ball to John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo enough, and the entire team avoids the free-throw line like the plague. Yet somehow, even with that overall passivity, the Bucks have the 5th-highest turnover rate in the league. Also, Gary Neal is one of your three highest-usage players??
3. Lakers: First, without Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have cratered in offensive rebounding (13th last year, 26th this year) and getting to the line (2nd last year, 14th this time). These are both symptoms of the bigger issue: every possession is a struggle to get a quality shot.
4. Thunder: Turns out it's hard to sustain the most efficient offense in the NBA without Russell Westbrook. And with Kendrick Perkins. And Thabo Sefolosha forgetting how to shoot.
5. Jazz: Given that 5 of the top 6 Jazz players in minutes played are 23 or younger, ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency isn't bad. (The league-worst defense, on the other hand...)

The top three-point shooting duos in the NBA

In today's NBA, virtually every team wants at least two (and preferably more) long-range shooters on the floor at all times. This opens up space inside for both post players and drivers, which can boost free throw rates and overall offensive efficiency as a result.

So which team has the best duo of three-point shooters?

I mapped 3P% vs 3PA/gm for each team's top two shooters, measured by total 3PA. (I put a minimum of 3.5 attempts/gm for each player, so if your favorite team isn't listed here, it's because you didn't have two players who met that criteria.)

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Some takeaways:

• It will surprise absolutely no one to see the Splash Brothers near the top-right of this chart. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are just doing their usual record-breaking thing (though Curry's 41.3% is really dragging his teammate down).
• But how about Portland? Wesley Matthews continues to shoot out of his mind, and Damian Lillard may already be the second-best shooting lead guard in the league.
• Kyle Korver is shooting precisely 50% on threes. I just... I mean... it's the only thing he really does, and teams still have no answer for it.
• I love the way that Mike D'Antoni has deployed Jodie Meeks (46% from 3PT) and Steve Blake, as well as Shawne Williams and others, in his early-in-the-shot-clock, long-distance attack. It'll be interesting to see how this changes, in both volume and efficiency, with Kobe Bryant's return.
• The fact that the Celtics with frickin' Jordan Crawford and Jeff Green are in the top left of this chart may be the strongest data point yet for Brad Stevens' Coach of the Year candidacy.
• Ray Allen: under 39% so far. Shane Battier: hovering around 30%. These will improve - well at least Ray is guaranteed to, since he's a cyborg. And when they do, Miami's LeBron James-fueled, record-pace offense may get even better.
• You knew the Pistons were going to suck here, correct?What you may not have realized is that Brandon Jennings is actually up to a respectable 36% from three-land. Josh Smith is at 27%. And has already chucked up 100 attempts, and is showing no signs of slowing down. (More on Smoove in the day ahead.)

10 great stats from NBAwowy

Here are five quick nuggets from the treasure trove that is NBAwowy.com:

1. With Marc Gasol on the floor, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph have true shooting percentages of 59.5 and 55.1, respectively. Without Marc, those dip to 50.2 and 50.6. Get better soon, Nasty.

2. Just in case you thought (as I suspected) that Monta Ellis' growth this year was mostly from playing alongside Dirk Nowitzki: Monta with Dirk on the floor: 27.9 usage, 53.3 TS%. With Dirk on the bench: 27.5 usage, 59.5 TS%.
3. The Kings are scoring 100 points per 100 possessions with Greivis Vasquez on the floor, which would rank about 20th in the NBA team rankings. Without Vasquez, they're scoring 108.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 2nd in the NBA, just behind the Heat's 108.8.
4. Speaking of Miami, are we still pretending Udonis Haslem is integral to this team? With Udonis on the court, Miami scores 107 pts / 100 possessions and gives up a whopping 118 pts / 100 poss. With Udonis in the cheering section, the Heat outscore opponents 117.5 - 102 per 100 poss. More amazingly, in the 108 minutes that Haslem and LeBron James have played together, the Heat have been outscored by 20 points. UDONIS HASLEM CANCELS OUT LEBRON JAMES!
5. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have been outstanding for the Blazers, and Wesley Matthews is shooting like Steve Kerr on steroids. But the real MVP for Portland might be Robin Lopez. With Lopez on the court, the Blazers outscore opponents 112-104 per 100 possessions. That's championship-level material. Without him, it's 110-109... basically a .500 team.

Leaders in three-point attempts: how well are they shooting?

Here are the top 30 players in 3PA /game so far in 2013-14, plotted against their 3P% (minimum 6 games played):

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(You can also see the chart here.)


Some takeaways: 

• It's old hat at this point to bow to the awesomeness of the Klay Thompson - Stephen Curry duo in Golden State. Everyone knows they can shoot. But then you see a chart like this, and... holy hell. Every good team has its unique advantages. The Warriors' unique advantage is a nuclear jetpack.
• One of the keys to Portland's blazing start: check out Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews on this chart. Wes' current accuracy is unsustainable, but he can drop by 6-8 percentage points, be close to his career marks, and still be an ace safety valve for Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge.
• Kyle Korver is approaching 500 3PA during his time in Atlanta. He's currently shooting 46.3% on those 450+ attempts. So, yes, not a fluke.
• James Harden's 3P% the past three seasons: 39% (last season in OKC), 36.8% last year, 31.5% this year. His attempts / game: 4.7, 6.2, 6.6.
• Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are combining to jack up over 10 3PA / gm. The better of the two is shooting 32%. Spacing problems? What spacing problems?
• It'll be interesting to see where guys like O.J. Mayo and Jodie Meeks end up. Both are blowing away their past performance, but on the other hand, both have also changed their responsibilities this year, and that may account for some of the improvement. We'll see how much proves sustainable.

Is Michael Carter-Williams having the best start by a point guard... ever?

Here's a brief recap of what Michael Carter-Williams has done through his first three NBA games:

Scored 62 points. Dished 27 assists. Nabbed 14 rebounds. Grabbed 13 steals. Helped beat both Miami and Chicago. Saved the city of Philadelphia from itself (temporarily at least). Rescued a kitten.

Not a bad start, especially for a rookie who didn't make a first-, second-, or third-team All-American squad in either of his years in college. So how historic is MCW's start? Is it maybe the best start by a point guard in NBA history?

Before we see what the numbers say, one critical caveat: full game logs were only available starting in the 1985-86 season, and that's when our data starts. So Oscar Robertson (or Magic) may have started his career in full Beast Mode, but we just don't have access to the full details.

Let's start with all players who've tallied at least 30 total points and 15 total assists in the first 3 games of their career. The first chart maps their assists per 36 mins vs. points per 36 mins. I've highlighted John Wall (in blue) and MCW (in red) because they're so close to each other on this chart. Just for giggles, I've also highlighted LeBron James in gold.

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So the only player who beats MCW (and Wall) in both Pts/36 and Ast/36 through 3 games is Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, who played only 67 total minutes in his three games.

But of course, points and assists haven't been MCW's only contributions to date - far from it. Witness:



So how does MCW compare to the above players in other stats? Let's check out rebounding, steals, and protecting the ball. (Again, Carter-Williams in red, John Wall in blue, LeBron in gold.)

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So comparatively speaking, Carter-Williams is strong in rebounding, third-best in assist:turnover ratio, and first in steals. Wow.

What does all this portend for Carter-Williams' future? I haven't a friggin' clue. He's certainly old for a rookie, especially one with only two years of college experience. (Krie Irving is five months younger than MCW.) On the other hand, his physical attributes are completely unlike other older rookies like Damian Lillard or Damon Stoudamire.

Regardless of what happens from here out, though, the start has been historically special.