Who should win Defensive Player of the Year?

Since practically the first game of the season, it's seemed like the Defensive Player of the Year award was headed to Roy Hibbert. And his case remains strong - Indy still leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, and Hibbert's interior presence is the most integral piece of that.

But there are worthy challengers. I'm going to look at four candidates here - Hibbert, Joakim Noah, Dwight Howard, and DeAndre Jordan. (I thought long and hard about other guys, including Serge Ibaka, but ultimately I think these four stand above the rest based on a combination of individual and team success.)

Let's start with some data on one-on-one defense:

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In terms of one-on-one defense, Hibbert is clearly the best inside - he's tops in field-goal percentage at the rim, and in isolation plays. But Noah is exceptional covering in space, both against the screener / roller in pick-and-rolls, and guarding spot-up shooters. Not surprisingly, he's also asked to play out in space far more often than Dwight or Roy. That's obviously a function of the defensive scheme, so we're not penalizing Howard or Hibbert for it, but it does point to Noah's versatility.

Of course, DPOY is (or at least should be) about more than just one-on-one field goal percentage. Next, let's look at how many minutes these guys are actually on the floor, and how they're doing on defensive rebounding (since an opponent's possession isn't over until you secure the ball).

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Hmmm, tough times for Hibbert, and the real strength of Jordan's case. Dwight, Joakim and especially DeAndre all play significantly more minutes than Roy, and are all far better defensive rebounders. This is a bit tricky, because Hibbert's per-game rebounding totals are going to be affected by the presence of David West, Lance Stephenson, and Paul George, all of whom rebound at above-average clips for their positions. But the last chart above, based on SportVU data, shows that Hibbert also simply doesn't snare as many rebounds even when he's in prime position (within 3.5 feet of the rim). And his defensive rebounding rates have declined each of the past three seasons, even though West is playing fewer minutes himself this season.

Finally, let's look at team performance, both with these four on the court and off.

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Yeah, Hibbert and Noah are awesome. They're both taking fantastic defenses to an entirely different level when they're on the court. I'm shocked by Jordan's stats here - the Clips don't exactly roll out stud defenders when DJ goes to the bench. Speaking of stud bench defenders, you have to take Dwight's position on this chart with a generous grain of salt because he's backed up by the superb Omer Asik. And he's often covering for three minus defenders around him, including James Harden, who went from Thanksgiving to St Patrick's Day without giving a single crap about defense.

So who should win the Defensive Player of the Year?

Man, is it tough to select one guy. Hibbert is the most dominant defender inside, and the lynchpin of the best overall defense. But he plays the fewest minutes and has really faltered on rebounding. Dwight is still a very good all-around defender, but he's not at the all-time level he set a few years ago in Orlando. And Jordan, while vastly improved in coverage and the league's undisputed best rebounder this year, still has inconsistencies at the rim and in pick-and-roll situations.

Which leaves us with Noah - the candidate with the fewest blemishes. He defends the entire court exceptionally well, he's been durable, and he's captained the second-best defense in the NBA even after losing ace perimeter defender Luol Deng mid-season.

Time to celebrate, Jo!



Data sources: NBA.com/stats, basketball-reference.com, Synergy Sports

Top dunkers in the NBA this year

Who dunks the most in the NBA? Who misses dunks most often - and who never misses?

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Can't see the charts? Click here.

Some takeaways:

• Shocker: DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin both dunk a lot! Slightly bigger shocker: DeAndre also misses a lot of dunks - 26 so far this year, nearly 12% of his attempts. No one else has missed more than 16, which leads us to...
• Plumlee! Yes, Miles Plumlee has thrown it down more this year than Mason Plumlee, but Miles has also missed over 15% of his attempts. Mason has missed only 6%.
• Go figure: dunks are yet another category where LeBron James and Kevin Durant lead the league in efficiency (at least among the 20 leading dunkers).
• Josh Smith: 97% FG on dunks, 25% on 3PT. Good thing he's jacked up 150 more three-point attempts than dunk attempts.
• Now, if you're looking for dunking perfection (as in never missing), Robin Lopez and Markieff Morris are your men. Meanwhile, Marcus Morris is a modest 10-of-11 on jams this year. (Aside: what's with brothers and dunking?)

By the way, last year's top 5 in dunks: Blake, Dwight Howard, DeAndre, JaVale McGee, and LeBron.


Data source: basketball-reference.com

How this year's title contenders compare to past NBA champions

There are, by my count, eight legitimate (or semi-legitimate) title contenders in the NBA this year - seven teams that are winning more than 2/3 of their games, plus the Warriors who are 7th in overall efficiency. I wanted to look at how those contenders compare to the past ten NBA champions in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

I'm using offensive (defensive) efficiency index, which basically means comparing each team's points scored (allowed) per 100 possessions to their league average that year. A higher offensive index (and lower defensive index) is better.

Here we go - and remember, teams want to be as close to the top right corner of this chart as possible:

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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

•  Everyone considers the 2014 Heat legitimate title contenders - and rightfully so, given their track record and ability to seemingly "turn it on" in the playoffs. (And presumably more minutes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.) And it seems an increasing number of fans and media are placing the Clippers and Rockets into the contender bucket as well, especially with how well Blake Griffin played in Chris Paul's absence, and Dwight Howard's impact on the Rockets' half-court D. But it's worth noting that no champion in the past 10 years as been as average on defense as the 2014 Heat, Clips, or Rockets. Every one of those recent champs was at least 4% better on defense than the league average, and half of them were at least 7% better than average. The Clips are actually tied with the 2006 Heat right now, so it's certainly possible they overtake them soon. Now for the optimists out there, take a gander at those three teams on offense -  they're more efficient compared to their peers than any recent champ, except for last year's Heat squad. This year's playoffs could be more offense-first than any recent edition.
• Except that Indiana is prominently involved. This year's Pacers aren't LIKE the 2004 Pistons - they ARE the 2004 Pistons. The raw numbers (and the early-season ascent of Paul George) might mask that fact, but consider how the league has evolved over the past decade. The average team in 2004 scored 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and in no season since then has the average been below 104.6 pts / 100 possessions. This year, the league average is a hair under 106 pts / 100 possessions. When you account for more dynamic offense across the board, Indiana this year looks even better on defense (thanks, Roy Hibbert!) - and even worse on offense.
• The Spurs and Thunder. I mean, what is there to say? They've probably been the most impacted by injuries (Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker) of any of this year's top 8, and yet they still sport the best balance of elite offense and really superb defense. I don't think most fans recognize how incredible Tim Duncan has been on both ends of the court this year - he's top-five in the NBA in both blocks and defensive rebounding while leading the Spurs in total minutes. As for OKC, I'm really intrigued by the proximity of this year's squad to the 2009 Lakers on this chart - that seems like an excellent comp, in terms of one elite scorer (though Kevin Durant is more efficient than Kobe Bryant five years ago), an All-Star #2 on offense, and an underrated smothering defense.
• Maybe I should stop calling the Blazers a contender. Adjusted for pace and season, they're less efficient on defense than the "Seven Seconds or Less" 2006 Suns. And their Damian Lillard-fueled offense is outstanding... but still only 4th-best in the NBA. That's not a recipe for winning two payoff rounds, much less four.
• The Warriors, though - OK, they have to make the playoffs first. Fine. But the defense is right in line with championship standards. On the other side of the ledger, raise your hand if you thought a Stephen Curry-led offense would be less relatively efficient than the 2005 Spurs.

Data sources: NBA.com/stats, basketball-reference.com

The masters of getting to the free-throw line

Here's a chart of the 25 players who are getting to the free throw line the most this season (as measured by FTA / 36 minutes), and how they're doing once they get there.

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Some takeaways:

• Perhaps nothing illustrates the growth on offense of DeMarcus Cousins better than this: in each of his first three seasons in the NBA, Cousins averaged between 6 and 7 FTA / 36 minutes. This year, he's the only qualified player in the NBA averaging over 10 FTA / 36. He's hitting 71% right now, right in line with his career average. If he can pull that up to 75% or higher... good golly, how do you stop him?
• LOL Dwight Howard. Let's start with the good news: he still gets to the charity stripe a ton, and he's hitting free throws at a higher rate than in either of his past two seasons. So that's nice. On the other hand, he's missed 154 FTA so far. No one else on this chart has missed more than 86 (Blake Griffin). Dwight has missed 25 more FTA than Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kevin Love combined, and that trio has taken 550 more total attempts than Howard.
• Speaking of Durant, he's one made 3P and four FT away from shooting 50% 2P / 40% 3P / 90% FT. Amazingly, each of those percentages is actually down from last season.
• LeBron James started the season red-hot (by his standards) from the stripe, shooting almost 80% through the end of November. Since then, however, he's been just a shade over 70%. His career average is 75%.
• Tony Wroten? Tony Wroten! Philly has to be delighted that he (and his backcourt mate Michael Carter-Williams) are able to get to the line at will, especially when both are still under 21 and barely understand NBA offense. Unfortunately both of them are among the five worst on this chart at hitting their freebies. By the way, Wroten hit 72% last season in Memphis, but his 58% mark this year is exactly in line with what he shot in his lone college season, so I'm going to consider last year the outlier until further notice.
• Check out the teams that have a pair of players on this list, and how they rank in offensive efficiency. The Rockets (with Harden and Dwight) are 4th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. The Wolves (Love and Kevin Martin) are 5th, the Clips (Blake and Chris Paul) are 7th, the Pelicans (Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans) are 8th, and the Suns (Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe) are 10th. Even the less-heralded Hawks (Jeff Teague and the ever-professional Paul Millsap) are 13th. That's not a coincidence - if you can consistently run two-man actions in the half-court that get you free points, you're well on your way to a powerful offense.
• And finally, I can't not mention Swaggy P. Nick Young is getting to the line on a career-best 32% of his FG attempts, which is propelling him to a career mark in true shooting percentage as well. I understand the numerous criticisms of Mike D'Antoni - many of which are valid - but he's demonstrating again an amazing ability to put limited role players in a position to succeed on offense.

The best rebounders in the NBA, featuring Andre Drummond

Who are the best rebounders in the NBA? Looking at rebounds per game gets us a partial answer, but it doesn't account for a couple of important factors. First, different players get different numbers of opportunities for rebounds. Second, not all rebounds are created equal. Some are uncontested, while others are most definitely not.

The two charts below should give us some more insight. The top chart maps rebounding chances per game against the percentage of those chances that actually get rebounded. (We're including every player who gets at least 14 chances per game.) The second chart looks at the leaders in rebounds per 36 minutes, and breaks those rebounds into uncontested (in purple) and contested (in orange). NBA.com defines "contested" as those rebounds where an opponent is within 3.5 feet of the rebound.

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Some takeaways:

• It's probably premature to say definitively that Andre Drummond is the best rebounder in the NBA. But... not by much. He's leading all 29 players in the top chart by pulling in a whopping 73% of rebounding chances. If he's near the ball, he's getting it. Even more impressively, he's doing it the hard way - he's second in total rebounds / 36 mins, and has more contested rebounds AND fewer uncontested rebounds than any of the other top 9 players in that category. What a beast. Oh, did I mention he turned 20 this summer?
• When it comes to board work, Kevin Love dishes out quality and quantity. He's averaging over 21 rebounding chances per game - nobody else in the game earns over 18 chances. That's proof of both his ability to stay on the floor and his incredible nose for the ball.
• If Drummond is the best young rebounder in the game, DeMarcus Cousins certainly isn't far behind.
• Only 29% of Dwight Howard's rebounds this season are contested, compared to 44% for Drummond and 41% for DeAndre Jordan. I have no idea what to make of this, honestly.
• Speaking of Jordan, his improvement on the boards from past seasons has been remarkable. It's partly because he's staying on the floor, playing over 35 mpg after never even breaking 29 mpg in previous season. But he's also grabbing far more rebounds on a per-36-minutes basis (13.0 this year, compared to a career average of 10.8). Combined with Blake Griffin's usual rebounding excellence, the Clips at least have a solid 1-2 punch inside. (Too bad they also have the not-so-solid 3-4-5 punch of Ryan Hollins, Antawn Jamison and Byron Mullens.)
• Shout out to Carmelo Anthony, grabbing almost 70% of his rebounding chances. He's easily setting new career highs in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, which is doubly impressive given his sky-high usage rate.
• Anderson Varejao. Struggling.

(Primary data source: NBA.com/stats)

Where every NBA team scores its points

How many points does each NBA team score near the basket? On long two's? Three pointers? Or at the line?

Here's the chart for every team, broken into six distances on the floor.

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(Chart can also be viewed here.)


Some takeaways:

• Interesting how similar Memphis and Miami look... until you get to 3PT, where Miami scores 26.4 ppg and Memphis clocks in at 13.8 ppg. That's the difference between a potentially  all-time great offense and one with a gaping, probably upside-capping hole.
• It's been often stated how Daryl Morey's vision for Houston's offense is to focus almost exclusively on 3PT, FT, and close-in shots. It sure looks like - with James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Dwight Howard in tow - that vision has been realized. No team in the NBA scores less on shots between 5 ft and the 3-point line than the Rockets, and it's not particularly close.
• Portland is practically the only team that bombs away on long-range two-pointers and still has a potent offense. Why? Primarily because LaMarcus Aldridge is the new Dirk Nowitzki.
• The Spurs are getting only 12 ppg from free throws, lowest in the NBA. The early struggles of Tim Duncan obviously have a lot to do with that. But thanks to Tony Parker, they're killing it close to the rim anyway.
• Speaking of close to the rim... Sixers? 43 ppg inside 5 ft? Last year, Philly was 8th-worst in getting points at that distance. Well done, Michael Carter-Williams and Spencer Hawes (among others).

(Primary data source: nba.com/stats)

Later this week, I'll be back with a look at how efficient teams are from each distance.

The greatest rebounders in modern NBA history

Let's look at the best rebounding seasons in modern NBA history (1974-2013) in two different ways.

First, who's dominated rebounding on both ends of the court? In Sheet 1, I've plotted the 48 player seasons that had the highest mix of rebounding on both ends of the court, as measured by DRB% and ORB%. (Those are the percentages of all available rebounds that the player collected while they were on the court.) The size of the circles represents the number of minutes played (min 1500 mins to qualify). Thanks to Basketball Reference for the stats.

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Next, I wanted to look just at defensive rebounding dominance over time. Why isolate on just def rebounds? Two reasons:

1. Offensive rebounding opportunities are often determined by the team's scheme. For example, the Doc Rivers-era Celtics teams punted on offensive rebound opportunities almost completely to focus on getting back on D. Kevin Garnett didn't forget how to grab offensive rebounds when he went to Boston. He was simply instructed not to.
2. Players with high usage rates on offense are generally less likely to have offensive rebound chances than someone who's allergic to the ball and just camps out at the basket.

So Sheet 2 shows every player since 1974 who's had multiple seasons of DRB greater than 28%. I'm looking for guys who've dominated the glass year after year.

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Takeaways

- When it comes to combined rebounding on both ends, as with most things, Dennis Rodman is on another planet. His 1994-95 season is statistically the best mix of offensive and defensive board work in modern NBA history, and it's not close. But bear in mind he played only 49 games that season, thanks to a mix of butting heads with the Spurs organization and injuries. Personally, I'd put his 1992-93 at the top of his rebounding list. He played over 3300 minutes that season, grabbed over one-third of all defensive rebound chances and 18% of potential offensive boards. It's an amazing combination of stamina, talent and effort.
- Moses Malone, y'all. Young Moses was relatively thin, quite good on the defensive glass... and a preposterous beast on the offensive boards. He started in the ABA at age 19, and led his respective league in total offensive boards eight of his first nine pro seasons. Moses finished his career with just over 7300 off rebs. No one else in modern NBA history has over 4800. (Bear in mind, they didn't keep off reb stats during the Russell-Wilt era.)
- I knew Maurice Reggie Evans had a great rebounding season in 2012-13. I didn't realize his defensive board work was the best in the past 40 years. Hoovering almost 38% of available boards... wow.
- Get / stay healthy, Kevin Love and Dwight Howard. You're both on historic paths if you stay upright.