Why Josh Smith just became unemployed

I mean, I know it's more complicated than this, but...

Learn About Tableau

Thanks for the memories, Detroit Josh Smith. Your move, Kemba Walker.

PS - Yep, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are really that intergalactic. James Harden and Stephen Curry are pretty friggin' special, too.

Usage vs efficiency for the new season's top scorers

Of course it's early, but...

Let's take a look at the usage and true shooting percentage for each of the NBA's 20 ppg scorers right now.

Learn About Tableau

(Having trouble seeing the visualization? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

• Dear Stephen Curry: if you intend to continue shooting 57% on twos, 41% on threes, and 97% on FT's, can we just time-machine out to May and watch you in the second round of the playoffs? Please?
• Kobe Bryant... look, his true shooting percentage is 48%. The rest of the Lakers: 56%.  Even if you want to argue Kobe's presence frees up space for others, that's an imbalance that simply doesn't mesh with a 38% usage rate.
• Tony Wroten? Tony Wroten! For all of his (and his team's) faults, TW can certainly get to the line (8+ attempts per game). It's a shame he doesn't hit more than 65% of them. That's inexcusable for a guard.
• James Harden is actually tied with Mr. Bryant for the lowest FG% of anyone on the chart. But he's getting to the line an almost comical 10.9 times per game - and hitting 90% of them. Don't let the visceral ugliness of James' game distract from its lethal potency.

Top dunkers in the NBA this year

Who dunks the most in the NBA? Who misses dunks most often - and who never misses?

Learn About Tableau

Can't see the charts? Click here.

Some takeaways:

• Shocker: DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin both dunk a lot! Slightly bigger shocker: DeAndre also misses a lot of dunks - 26 so far this year, nearly 12% of his attempts. No one else has missed more than 16, which leads us to...
• Plumlee! Yes, Miles Plumlee has thrown it down more this year than Mason Plumlee, but Miles has also missed over 15% of his attempts. Mason has missed only 6%.
• Go figure: dunks are yet another category where LeBron James and Kevin Durant lead the league in efficiency (at least among the 20 leading dunkers).
• Josh Smith: 97% FG on dunks, 25% on 3PT. Good thing he's jacked up 150 more three-point attempts than dunk attempts.
• Now, if you're looking for dunking perfection (as in never missing), Robin Lopez and Markieff Morris are your men. Meanwhile, Marcus Morris is a modest 10-of-11 on jams this year. (Aside: what's with brothers and dunking?)

By the way, last year's top 5 in dunks: Blake, Dwight Howard, DeAndre, JaVale McGee, and LeBron.


Data source: basketball-reference.com

How this year's title contenders compare to past NBA champions

There are, by my count, eight legitimate (or semi-legitimate) title contenders in the NBA this year - seven teams that are winning more than 2/3 of their games, plus the Warriors who are 7th in overall efficiency. I wanted to look at how those contenders compare to the past ten NBA champions in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

I'm using offensive (defensive) efficiency index, which basically means comparing each team's points scored (allowed) per 100 possessions to their league average that year. A higher offensive index (and lower defensive index) is better.

Here we go - and remember, teams want to be as close to the top right corner of this chart as possible:

Learn About Tableau

(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

•  Everyone considers the 2014 Heat legitimate title contenders - and rightfully so, given their track record and ability to seemingly "turn it on" in the playoffs. (And presumably more minutes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.) And it seems an increasing number of fans and media are placing the Clippers and Rockets into the contender bucket as well, especially with how well Blake Griffin played in Chris Paul's absence, and Dwight Howard's impact on the Rockets' half-court D. But it's worth noting that no champion in the past 10 years as been as average on defense as the 2014 Heat, Clips, or Rockets. Every one of those recent champs was at least 4% better on defense than the league average, and half of them were at least 7% better than average. The Clips are actually tied with the 2006 Heat right now, so it's certainly possible they overtake them soon. Now for the optimists out there, take a gander at those three teams on offense -  they're more efficient compared to their peers than any recent champ, except for last year's Heat squad. This year's playoffs could be more offense-first than any recent edition.
• Except that Indiana is prominently involved. This year's Pacers aren't LIKE the 2004 Pistons - they ARE the 2004 Pistons. The raw numbers (and the early-season ascent of Paul George) might mask that fact, but consider how the league has evolved over the past decade. The average team in 2004 scored 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and in no season since then has the average been below 104.6 pts / 100 possessions. This year, the league average is a hair under 106 pts / 100 possessions. When you account for more dynamic offense across the board, Indiana this year looks even better on defense (thanks, Roy Hibbert!) - and even worse on offense.
• The Spurs and Thunder. I mean, what is there to say? They've probably been the most impacted by injuries (Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker) of any of this year's top 8, and yet they still sport the best balance of elite offense and really superb defense. I don't think most fans recognize how incredible Tim Duncan has been on both ends of the court this year - he's top-five in the NBA in both blocks and defensive rebounding while leading the Spurs in total minutes. As for OKC, I'm really intrigued by the proximity of this year's squad to the 2009 Lakers on this chart - that seems like an excellent comp, in terms of one elite scorer (though Kevin Durant is more efficient than Kobe Bryant five years ago), an All-Star #2 on offense, and an underrated smothering defense.
• Maybe I should stop calling the Blazers a contender. Adjusted for pace and season, they're less efficient on defense than the "Seven Seconds or Less" 2006 Suns. And their Damian Lillard-fueled offense is outstanding... but still only 4th-best in the NBA. That's not a recipe for winning two payoff rounds, much less four.
• The Warriors, though - OK, they have to make the playoffs first. Fine. But the defense is right in line with championship standards. On the other side of the ledger, raise your hand if you thought a Stephen Curry-led offense would be less relatively efficient than the 2005 Spurs.

Data sources: NBA.com/stats, basketball-reference.com

The masters of getting to the free-throw line

Here's a chart of the 25 players who are getting to the free throw line the most this season (as measured by FTA / 36 minutes), and how they're doing once they get there.

Learn About Tableau

(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)
Some takeaways:

• Perhaps nothing illustrates the growth on offense of DeMarcus Cousins better than this: in each of his first three seasons in the NBA, Cousins averaged between 6 and 7 FTA / 36 minutes. This year, he's the only qualified player in the NBA averaging over 10 FTA / 36. He's hitting 71% right now, right in line with his career average. If he can pull that up to 75% or higher... good golly, how do you stop him?
• LOL Dwight Howard. Let's start with the good news: he still gets to the charity stripe a ton, and he's hitting free throws at a higher rate than in either of his past two seasons. So that's nice. On the other hand, he's missed 154 FTA so far. No one else on this chart has missed more than 86 (Blake Griffin). Dwight has missed 25 more FTA than Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Kevin Love combined, and that trio has taken 550 more total attempts than Howard.
• Speaking of Durant, he's one made 3P and four FT away from shooting 50% 2P / 40% 3P / 90% FT. Amazingly, each of those percentages is actually down from last season.
• LeBron James started the season red-hot (by his standards) from the stripe, shooting almost 80% through the end of November. Since then, however, he's been just a shade over 70%. His career average is 75%.
• Tony Wroten? Tony Wroten! Philly has to be delighted that he (and his backcourt mate Michael Carter-Williams) are able to get to the line at will, especially when both are still under 21 and barely understand NBA offense. Unfortunately both of them are among the five worst on this chart at hitting their freebies. By the way, Wroten hit 72% last season in Memphis, but his 58% mark this year is exactly in line with what he shot in his lone college season, so I'm going to consider last year the outlier until further notice.
• Check out the teams that have a pair of players on this list, and how they rank in offensive efficiency. The Rockets (with Harden and Dwight) are 4th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. The Wolves (Love and Kevin Martin) are 5th, the Clips (Blake and Chris Paul) are 7th, the Pelicans (Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans) are 8th, and the Suns (Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe) are 10th. Even the less-heralded Hawks (Jeff Teague and the ever-professional Paul Millsap) are 13th. That's not a coincidence - if you can consistently run two-man actions in the half-court that get you free points, you're well on your way to a powerful offense.
• And finally, I can't not mention Swaggy P. Nick Young is getting to the line on a career-best 32% of his FG attempts, which is propelling him to a career mark in true shooting percentage as well. I understand the numerous criticisms of Mike D'Antoni - many of which are valid - but he's demonstrating again an amazing ability to put limited role players in a position to succeed on offense.

The best rebounders in the NBA, featuring Andre Drummond

Who are the best rebounders in the NBA? Looking at rebounds per game gets us a partial answer, but it doesn't account for a couple of important factors. First, different players get different numbers of opportunities for rebounds. Second, not all rebounds are created equal. Some are uncontested, while others are most definitely not.

The two charts below should give us some more insight. The top chart maps rebounding chances per game against the percentage of those chances that actually get rebounded. (We're including every player who gets at least 14 chances per game.) The second chart looks at the leaders in rebounds per 36 minutes, and breaks those rebounds into uncontested (in purple) and contested (in orange). NBA.com defines "contested" as those rebounds where an opponent is within 3.5 feet of the rebound.

Learn About Tableau

Having trouble viewing the chart? Click here.

Some takeaways:

• It's probably premature to say definitively that Andre Drummond is the best rebounder in the NBA. But... not by much. He's leading all 29 players in the top chart by pulling in a whopping 73% of rebounding chances. If he's near the ball, he's getting it. Even more impressively, he's doing it the hard way - he's second in total rebounds / 36 mins, and has more contested rebounds AND fewer uncontested rebounds than any of the other top 9 players in that category. What a beast. Oh, did I mention he turned 20 this summer?
• When it comes to board work, Kevin Love dishes out quality and quantity. He's averaging over 21 rebounding chances per game - nobody else in the game earns over 18 chances. That's proof of both his ability to stay on the floor and his incredible nose for the ball.
• If Drummond is the best young rebounder in the game, DeMarcus Cousins certainly isn't far behind.
• Only 29% of Dwight Howard's rebounds this season are contested, compared to 44% for Drummond and 41% for DeAndre Jordan. I have no idea what to make of this, honestly.
• Speaking of Jordan, his improvement on the boards from past seasons has been remarkable. It's partly because he's staying on the floor, playing over 35 mpg after never even breaking 29 mpg in previous season. But he's also grabbing far more rebounds on a per-36-minutes basis (13.0 this year, compared to a career average of 10.8). Combined with Blake Griffin's usual rebounding excellence, the Clips at least have a solid 1-2 punch inside. (Too bad they also have the not-so-solid 3-4-5 punch of Ryan Hollins, Antawn Jamison and Byron Mullens.)
• Shout out to Carmelo Anthony, grabbing almost 70% of his rebounding chances. He's easily setting new career highs in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, which is doubly impressive given his sky-high usage rate.
• Anderson Varejao. Struggling.

(Primary data source: NBA.com/stats)