LeBron is playing playoff minutes like no one... ever

LeBron James has piled up more playoff minutes than anyone ever has through their first 15 seasons. Important: he's only in season 13.

What could possibly make LeBron's tally even more impressive? Consider:

• He's not done with season 13 yet!
• James was only 41st in playoff mins through his first five seasons, thanks to missing the playoffs completely his first two years.

How this year's title contenders compare to past NBA champions

There are, by my count, eight legitimate (or semi-legitimate) title contenders in the NBA this year - seven teams that are winning more than 2/3 of their games, plus the Warriors who are 7th in overall efficiency. I wanted to look at how those contenders compare to the past ten NBA champions in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.

I'm using offensive (defensive) efficiency index, which basically means comparing each team's points scored (allowed) per 100 possessions to their league average that year. A higher offensive index (and lower defensive index) is better.

Here we go - and remember, teams want to be as close to the top right corner of this chart as possible:

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Some takeaways:

•  Everyone considers the 2014 Heat legitimate title contenders - and rightfully so, given their track record and ability to seemingly "turn it on" in the playoffs. (And presumably more minutes for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.) And it seems an increasing number of fans and media are placing the Clippers and Rockets into the contender bucket as well, especially with how well Blake Griffin played in Chris Paul's absence, and Dwight Howard's impact on the Rockets' half-court D. But it's worth noting that no champion in the past 10 years as been as average on defense as the 2014 Heat, Clips, or Rockets. Every one of those recent champs was at least 4% better on defense than the league average, and half of them were at least 7% better than average. The Clips are actually tied with the 2006 Heat right now, so it's certainly possible they overtake them soon. Now for the optimists out there, take a gander at those three teams on offense -  they're more efficient compared to their peers than any recent champ, except for last year's Heat squad. This year's playoffs could be more offense-first than any recent edition.
• Except that Indiana is prominently involved. This year's Pacers aren't LIKE the 2004 Pistons - they ARE the 2004 Pistons. The raw numbers (and the early-season ascent of Paul George) might mask that fact, but consider how the league has evolved over the past decade. The average team in 2004 scored 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and in no season since then has the average been below 104.6 pts / 100 possessions. This year, the league average is a hair under 106 pts / 100 possessions. When you account for more dynamic offense across the board, Indiana this year looks even better on defense (thanks, Roy Hibbert!) - and even worse on offense.
• The Spurs and Thunder. I mean, what is there to say? They've probably been the most impacted by injuries (Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker) of any of this year's top 8, and yet they still sport the best balance of elite offense and really superb defense. I don't think most fans recognize how incredible Tim Duncan has been on both ends of the court this year - he's top-five in the NBA in both blocks and defensive rebounding while leading the Spurs in total minutes. As for OKC, I'm really intrigued by the proximity of this year's squad to the 2009 Lakers on this chart - that seems like an excellent comp, in terms of one elite scorer (though Kevin Durant is more efficient than Kobe Bryant five years ago), an All-Star #2 on offense, and an underrated smothering defense.
• Maybe I should stop calling the Blazers a contender. Adjusted for pace and season, they're less efficient on defense than the "Seven Seconds or Less" 2006 Suns. And their Damian Lillard-fueled offense is outstanding... but still only 4th-best in the NBA. That's not a recipe for winning two payoff rounds, much less four.
• The Warriors, though - OK, they have to make the playoffs first. Fine. But the defense is right in line with championship standards. On the other side of the ledger, raise your hand if you thought a Stephen Curry-led offense would be less relatively efficient than the 2005 Spurs.

Data sources: NBA.com/stats, basketball-reference.com

2014 All-Stars and snubs, by PER

Now that the NBA All-Star teams have been announced, here's a look at how the 23 players selected (not including the injured Kobe Bryant) have performed this season, as measured by Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and minutes played per game. I've also included 11 players who've been often mentioned as "snubs", at least from the original announced list.

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Some takeaways:

• Is this why they call Joe Johnson "Iso-Joe"? I tweeted this yesterday:

Among players with 1000+ mins played this year, Joe Johnson is 95th in PER, right between Enes Kanter + Jeremy Lamb. #AllStar
— statcenter (@statcenter) January 31, 2014

• But hey, at least they took someone who's young, up-and-coming, on a great team, and throws down thrilling dunks. Give the people what they want, Joe!

• Ignore Roy Hibbert in the bottom left. PER understates defense, and Hibbert is running away with the Defensive Player of the Year vote, at least at the halfway point.
• The only semi-plausible reason I've heard for excluding Anthony Davis is the time he missed due to injury. But the thing is... he's played more total minutes than Dwayne Wade, DeMarcus Cousins, Tony Parker or Chris Paul. If he's not Adam Silver's pick to replace Kobe, I'd be shocked. Then again, Joe Johnson.
• I honestly feel for Cousins, Goran Dragic, and Mike Conley being left out, and I double-feel for Kyle Lowry, who should be sticking pins in a Johnson Nets voodoo doll right about... now. The only consolation is that voters tend to remember the snubs the following year if they maintain their torrid play. Those young guys are likely to be rewarded, just a year late.
• I understand Lance Stephenson is on an exceptional team, and that he's often the offensive fulcrum for the Pacers. I would've had no problem with him over DeMar DeRozan, though it's close and I'm OK with it either way. But I wouldn't take Lance over Lowry, who's been a better scorer and floor general, and is probably about equal defensively.
• Ty Lawson, anyone? Anyone? 

And finally, just a friendly reminder...

Joe Johnson over Kyle Lowry is a complete joke.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) January 31, 2014

Driving to the basket: Who's the best?

Here are the 25 NBA players (through Jan 20) who drive to the basket the most, mapped against their FG% on those drives. (NBA.com defines drives as "any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.")

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Some takeaways:

• In terms of sheer volume of drives, Tony Parker, Ty Lawson and Monta Ellis are in a class by themselves. They also produce quality along with that quantity, albeit each in different ways. Lawson is excellent at finishing, but even better at setting up teammates with drive-and-kicks; no one in the NBA produces more team points directly from drives than Ty's 13.1 ppg. Parker, with his array of floaters and either-hand layups and scoops, is the best pure finisher of the trio. And Monta is the best (this year, at least) at drawing fouls from drives. He's actually leading the league with 8.0 individual ppg from drives.
• Jeremy Lin, everybody! This chart highlights Lin's biggest strength - the ability to drive and finish creatively. He may be a third guard at this point, but what a third guard. By the way, look at Lin, James Harden, and Chandler Parsons all bunched together on this chart. They're combining for 22 drives per game, shooting a combined 53% on those drives, and obviously hitting each other for open threes along the way. That's an incredibly efficient, dynamic foundation for an offense... especially with Dwight Howard waiting inside.
• Maybe LeBron James should be driving to the basket more? Maybe we could say the same (to a lesser extent) about Kevin Durant? The truth is, of course, that even for the two best drive-finishers in the game, it's a bit more complicated than that. Driving takes energy, and it's hard to achieve when the entire defense is focused on you. I expect both of them will penetrating a lot more in the playoffs. They'll be playing more minutes, and playing those minutes with Dwayne Wade and Russell Westbrook, respectively, should open up the court.
• Five of the six lowest on this chart in terms of FG% are quick guards who aren't necessarily known for their strength (except perhaps Dion Waiters, but he has the separate problem of not actually knowing how to play basketball). That's not to say guys like Brandon Jennings, Jeff Teague and Kemba Walker aren't valuable on drives, but that they're a little easier to control from a team defense perspective than guards like Parker and Lawson.
• Damian Lillard isn't far from being the perfect offensive point guard, and he's already at the helm of the best offense in the NBA right now. But his troubles finishing drives are probably his biggest limitation right now. If he can improve to just league-average at that, combined with Portland's other three-point shooters and LaMarcus Aldridge draining shots from the elbow and post... oof. Good luck stopping that.

UPDATE: A Tableau user named "RS" extended my data by looking at teammate points per drive and overall points generated. Check out his / her awesome work here.

How efficient are the NBA's highest-usage players?

Here are the true shooting %'s for the 25 players with the highest usage rates in the NBA right now (min 240 mins played).

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Some takeaways:

• LeBron James is killing the NBA softly with his efficiency. By the way, the modern-era record for TS%  (min 500 FGA) is 70.2%, by Artis Gilmore in 1981-82. The record for non-centers is Cedric Maxwell at just under 68%. LeBron has a great shot at busting that mark - while taking almost 50% more shots than Cornbread did.
• Does Kevin Durant curse the existence of LeBron every day, or is it a weekly ritual? Durant's efficiency is startling and borderline historic... except it's overshadowed by this other guy at every turn. Let's just relish them both.
• Monta Ellis finally does have it all! After posting TS% of 51% and 49% the past two years, Monta is over 59% this year. That's better than Stephen Curry, Tony Parker and Kevin Love. How is this happening? Simply put, he's doing everything better: taking fewer three's, shooting them more efficiently, and getting to the line at a far greater clip than ever before (7 FTA / 36 mins, compared to 4.5 FTA / 36 the past two seasons.) By the way, if this amazing transformation keeps up, this may become one of the strongest points in the Hall of Fame resume of Dirk Nowitzki. (Speaking of Dirk, he just misses the top 25 in usage on this chart, but his TS% is over 60%. That's a hell of a two-headed foundation for an offense.)
• I'm going to excuse Russell Westbrook's inefficiency for now because he's coming back from a serious meniscus injury.He's been over 53% TS each of the past three seasons, and I expect he'll be back there soon.
• What's up with DeMarcus Cousins? After a 28% usage rate last year, he's approaching 35% this year. His shooting isn't horrible, and he's actually passing pretty well (a 16% assist rate), so it'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this new level of volume and efficiency. Has losing Tyreke Evans has been addition by subtraction for DMC?

Where every NBA team scores its points

How many points does each NBA team score near the basket? On long two's? Three pointers? Or at the line?

Here's the chart for every team, broken into six distances on the floor.

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(Chart can also be viewed here.)


Some takeaways:

• Interesting how similar Memphis and Miami look... until you get to 3PT, where Miami scores 26.4 ppg and Memphis clocks in at 13.8 ppg. That's the difference between a potentially  all-time great offense and one with a gaping, probably upside-capping hole.
• It's been often stated how Daryl Morey's vision for Houston's offense is to focus almost exclusively on 3PT, FT, and close-in shots. It sure looks like - with James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Dwight Howard in tow - that vision has been realized. No team in the NBA scores less on shots between 5 ft and the 3-point line than the Rockets, and it's not particularly close.
• Portland is practically the only team that bombs away on long-range two-pointers and still has a potent offense. Why? Primarily because LaMarcus Aldridge is the new Dirk Nowitzki.
• The Spurs are getting only 12 ppg from free throws, lowest in the NBA. The early struggles of Tim Duncan obviously have a lot to do with that. But thanks to Tony Parker, they're killing it close to the rim anyway.
• Speaking of close to the rim... Sixers? 43 ppg inside 5 ft? Last year, Philly was 8th-worst in getting points at that distance. Well done, Michael Carter-Williams and Spencer Hawes (among others).

(Primary data source: nba.com/stats)

Later this week, I'll be back with a look at how efficient teams are from each distance.