Usage vs efficiency for NBA's highest-usage players

Here's how the NBA's 25 highest-usage players stack up in efficiency for the 2016-17 season (as of March 7):

It's hard to describe what Russell Westbrook is doing, except to say he's simply playing a different sport than everyone else. Has anyone every combined impact and inefficiency to this extent before?

Sorry KD and MJ: Steph Curry's redefining efficiency

Through 22 games, Stephen Curry is on pace to become the most efficient NBA scoring champion in modern NBA history (since 1985-86). Aaaand, it ain't close.

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Some thoughts:

• Over the past 30 years, the two gold standards for scoring volume and efficiency have been Michael Jordan and Kevin Durant. It's only been 22 games, but Steph is absolutely obliterating them and every other scoring champ. (Also, 22 games is actually a fair sample size when you're looking at something so freakish.)
• Kobe Bryant '06 was such a force of nature.
• That Allen Iverson MVP is looking grim in retrospect. Actually, I'm not sure it looked that pretty in the moment either.

The most prolific three-point shooters, 2013-2015

You're not going to believe who's at the peak of these charts. #MVP

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All stats from Basketball Reference.

Some quick takeaways:

• Is there any way we can get Kyle Korver on the same team with Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry? Maybe just for a week or something? Sorry Hawks fans - I'm not trying to antagonize you, I promise. I just want to see my own head explode.
• Danny Green is not just A Product Of The Spurs System (TM). He's an amazing shooter with serious flammability potential in any game. 
• I expected Damian Lillard to be higher in efficiency. Maybe that's just me.
• Some players I didn't expect to see so high: Joe Johnson, J.R. Smith, and Randy Foye.

Threes and frees: James Harden is the all-time king

Daryl Morey's vision for the Rockets is built upon taking and making the most efficient shots on the court: two-pointers at the rim, free throws,and three-point shots. We don't have historical data for layups and dunks, but we can take a look at who's scored the most points from 3PT and FT in a season.

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Conclusion: James Harden is Daryl Morey's cyborg.

It's hard to imagine that just three years ago, it wasn't clear whether or not Harden was worth a max contract. As is often the case, the theme here is fit really matters. Would Harden still be an All-Star in a more conventional offensive scheme? Sure. But would he singlehandedly push the boundaries of shot efficiency? Probably not.

A couple of other notes:

• Harden unseats former teammate Kevin Durant from the top spot by ever-so-slightly edging him in both 3PT and FT made. Harden attempted 64 more three's than KD did last season.
• Gilbert Arenas with two of the top 5 on this list? Yessir. Gil's 2005-06 season is almost identical to Harden this season in terms of 3P% (37.5% vs 36.9%) and 3PA (555 vs 540). But Harden shot much better (and a little more frequently) at the charity stripe.
• Stephen Curry followed up his top-20 all-time finish last season with an even better show this time. All it took to get to the top 10 was nailing 44% of his threes and missing only 29 FTs all season. Read that last sentence again.
• The all-time leader without making a single 3PT? That would be Jerry West, with 840 freebies in 1966. Wilt Chamberlain is just behind him with 835 free throws made in 1962. Of course, it took Wilt almost 400 more attempts than West.
• In case you were wondering: LeBron James reached his "threes and frees" peak in 2008-09,when he scored 990 combined points from those areas. That's good for 32nd all-time (incidentally, he also has spots 33 and 34 on the list).

Why Josh Smith just became unemployed

I mean, I know it's more complicated than this, but...

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Thanks for the memories, Detroit Josh Smith. Your move, Kemba Walker.

PS - Yep, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are really that intergalactic. James Harden and Stephen Curry are pretty friggin' special, too.

Usage vs efficiency for the new season's top scorers

Of course it's early, but...

Let's take a look at the usage and true shooting percentage for each of the NBA's 20 ppg scorers right now.

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Some takeaways:

• Dear Stephen Curry: if you intend to continue shooting 57% on twos, 41% on threes, and 97% on FT's, can we just time-machine out to May and watch you in the second round of the playoffs? Please?
• Kobe Bryant... look, his true shooting percentage is 48%. The rest of the Lakers: 56%.  Even if you want to argue Kobe's presence frees up space for others, that's an imbalance that simply doesn't mesh with a 38% usage rate.
• Tony Wroten? Tony Wroten! For all of his (and his team's) faults, TW can certainly get to the line (8+ attempts per game). It's a shame he doesn't hit more than 65% of them. That's inexcusable for a guard.
• James Harden is actually tied with Mr. Bryant for the lowest FG% of anyone on the chart. But he's getting to the line an almost comical 10.9 times per game - and hitting 90% of them. Don't let the visceral ugliness of James' game distract from its lethal potency.

The top three-point shooting duos in the NBA

In today's NBA, virtually every team wants at least two (and preferably more) long-range shooters on the floor at all times. This opens up space inside for both post players and drivers, which can boost free throw rates and overall offensive efficiency as a result.

So which team has the best duo of three-point shooters?

I mapped 3P% vs 3PA/gm for each team's top two shooters, measured by total 3PA. (I put a minimum of 3.5 attempts/gm for each player, so if your favorite team isn't listed here, it's because you didn't have two players who met that criteria.)

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Some takeaways:

• It will surprise absolutely no one to see the Splash Brothers near the top-right of this chart. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are just doing their usual record-breaking thing (though Curry's 41.3% is really dragging his teammate down).
• But how about Portland? Wesley Matthews continues to shoot out of his mind, and Damian Lillard may already be the second-best shooting lead guard in the league.
• Kyle Korver is shooting precisely 50% on threes. I just... I mean... it's the only thing he really does, and teams still have no answer for it.
• I love the way that Mike D'Antoni has deployed Jodie Meeks (46% from 3PT) and Steve Blake, as well as Shawne Williams and others, in his early-in-the-shot-clock, long-distance attack. It'll be interesting to see how this changes, in both volume and efficiency, with Kobe Bryant's return.
• The fact that the Celtics with frickin' Jordan Crawford and Jeff Green are in the top left of this chart may be the strongest data point yet for Brad Stevens' Coach of the Year candidacy.
• Ray Allen: under 39% so far. Shane Battier: hovering around 30%. These will improve - well at least Ray is guaranteed to, since he's a cyborg. And when they do, Miami's LeBron James-fueled, record-pace offense may get even better.
• You knew the Pistons were going to suck here, correct?What you may not have realized is that Brandon Jennings is actually up to a respectable 36% from three-land. Josh Smith is at 27%. And has already chucked up 100 attempts, and is showing no signs of slowing down. (More on Smoove in the day ahead.)

How efficient are the NBA's highest-usage players?

Here are the true shooting %'s for the 25 players with the highest usage rates in the NBA right now (min 240 mins played).

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Some takeaways:

• LeBron James is killing the NBA softly with his efficiency. By the way, the modern-era record for TS%  (min 500 FGA) is 70.2%, by Artis Gilmore in 1981-82. The record for non-centers is Cedric Maxwell at just under 68%. LeBron has a great shot at busting that mark - while taking almost 50% more shots than Cornbread did.
• Does Kevin Durant curse the existence of LeBron every day, or is it a weekly ritual? Durant's efficiency is startling and borderline historic... except it's overshadowed by this other guy at every turn. Let's just relish them both.
• Monta Ellis finally does have it all! After posting TS% of 51% and 49% the past two years, Monta is over 59% this year. That's better than Stephen Curry, Tony Parker and Kevin Love. How is this happening? Simply put, he's doing everything better: taking fewer three's, shooting them more efficiently, and getting to the line at a far greater clip than ever before (7 FTA / 36 mins, compared to 4.5 FTA / 36 the past two seasons.) By the way, if this amazing transformation keeps up, this may become one of the strongest points in the Hall of Fame resume of Dirk Nowitzki. (Speaking of Dirk, he just misses the top 25 in usage on this chart, but his TS% is over 60%. That's a hell of a two-headed foundation for an offense.)
• I'm going to excuse Russell Westbrook's inefficiency for now because he's coming back from a serious meniscus injury.He's been over 53% TS each of the past three seasons, and I expect he'll be back there soon.
• What's up with DeMarcus Cousins? After a 28% usage rate last year, he's approaching 35% this year. His shooting isn't horrible, and he's actually passing pretty well (a 16% assist rate), so it'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this new level of volume and efficiency. Has losing Tyreke Evans has been addition by subtraction for DMC?

Leaders in three-point attempts: how well are they shooting?

Here are the top 30 players in 3PA /game so far in 2013-14, plotted against their 3P% (minimum 6 games played):

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(You can also see the chart here.)


Some takeaways: 

• It's old hat at this point to bow to the awesomeness of the Klay Thompson - Stephen Curry duo in Golden State. Everyone knows they can shoot. But then you see a chart like this, and... holy hell. Every good team has its unique advantages. The Warriors' unique advantage is a nuclear jetpack.
• One of the keys to Portland's blazing start: check out Damian Lillard and Wesley Matthews on this chart. Wes' current accuracy is unsustainable, but he can drop by 6-8 percentage points, be close to his career marks, and still be an ace safety valve for Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge.
• Kyle Korver is approaching 500 3PA during his time in Atlanta. He's currently shooting 46.3% on those 450+ attempts. So, yes, not a fluke.
• James Harden's 3P% the past three seasons: 39% (last season in OKC), 36.8% last year, 31.5% this year. His attempts / game: 4.7, 6.2, 6.6.
• Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are combining to jack up over 10 3PA / gm. The better of the two is shooting 32%. Spacing problems? What spacing problems?
• It'll be interesting to see where guys like O.J. Mayo and Jodie Meeks end up. Both are blowing away their past performance, but on the other hand, both have also changed their responsibilities this year, and that may account for some of the improvement. We'll see how much proves sustainable.

5 early gems from the new NBA player tracking tool

If you haven't seen the new NBA Player Tracking tool yet, check it out. It uses SportVU cameras and software to track the movements of every player on every court for every NBA game. That means it can chart the movements and speed of every player, touches and passes, rebounding, defensive opportunities, and much more. It's going to be an amazing tool for fans to get a deeper, more nuanced understanding of the game.

Like for example, by jumping to impossibly early conclusions based on two games of data! But hey, it's fun, so here are five early nuggets that I found interesting and we'll keep tracking in the future. (Note: I'm only including data for players who've played two games so far, not one. See? I care about sample size!)

1. How some notable centers are doing defending the rim (min 6 FGA / gm at the rim):

Against Roy Hibbert: opponents are shooting 26% at the rim (btw, David West and Ian Mahinmi both qualify as well, and are at 38% and 37% respectively)
Chris Kaman: 17% (!)
Tyson Chandler: 32%
Andrew Bogut: 50%
Pau Gasol: 54%
Nikola Vucevic: 56%
Chris Bosh: 62%

2. Catch and shoot FG% (min 5 such FGA/gm):

Klay Thompson: 73%
LeBron James: 62.5%
Ray Allen: 41.7%
Carmelo Anthony: 40%
Wesley Johnson and Pau Gasol: 36% each
Arron Aflalo: 25%

Bonus: Stephen Curry doesn't qualify yet, but (yawn) he's at 75%.

3. Leaders in player time of possession per game (number of mins a player possesses the ball in mins):

Chris Paul: 7.9 mins out of 37 mins played
Derrick Rose: 6.6 mins, 32.9 mins played
Jameer Nelson: 6.2 mins, 35.5 mins played

Bonus: Klay Thompson has possessed the ball for just 1.1 mins / gm in order to score 24 ppg. That's 66 seconds per game.

4. Leaders in average speed on the court (in mph, min 20 mpg)

Norris Cole: 4.7 mph
JJ Redick: 4.7 mph
Kirk Hinrich: 4.6 mph
Steve Blake: 4.6 mph

5. Leaders in assist opportunities per gm (passes in which the teammate then attempts a shot):

CP3: 21.5 opptys/ gm, translating to 13 apg
Jameer Nelson: 18.5 opptys/ gm, 7.5 apg
LeBron: 18 opptys/ gm, 10.5 apg

Bonus: Poor D-Rose and Melo: each have 9.5 opptys/ gm, but only 3.5 apg


FINAL bonus: D-Rose has attempted 13 pull-up jumpers so far this season, and has made 0 of them.

Visual proof that Steph Curry is an alien

Here's a graph of every player from the 2009-2013 seasons who attempted more than 6 3PA / game, plotted against their 3P%.

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