Usage vs efficiency for the new season's top scorers

Of course it's early, but...

Let's take a look at the usage and true shooting percentage for each of the NBA's 20 ppg scorers right now.

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(Having trouble seeing the visualization? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

• Dear Stephen Curry: if you intend to continue shooting 57% on twos, 41% on threes, and 97% on FT's, can we just time-machine out to May and watch you in the second round of the playoffs? Please?
• Kobe Bryant... look, his true shooting percentage is 48%. The rest of the Lakers: 56%.  Even if you want to argue Kobe's presence frees up space for others, that's an imbalance that simply doesn't mesh with a 38% usage rate.
• Tony Wroten? Tony Wroten! For all of his (and his team's) faults, TW can certainly get to the line (8+ attempts per game). It's a shame he doesn't hit more than 65% of them. That's inexcusable for a guard.
• James Harden is actually tied with Mr. Bryant for the lowest FG% of anyone on the chart. But he's getting to the line an almost comical 10.9 times per game - and hitting 90% of them. Don't let the visceral ugliness of James' game distract from its lethal potency.

The five most improved NBA offenses - and five that have plummeted

Here's a chart of how every team's offensive efficiency has changed from 2012-13 to 2013-14, as measured by points scored per 100 possessions. (Through the games of Jan 16. Thanks to NBA.com/stats for the data.) The five teams in green have shown the most improvement, while the five in orange have decreased efficiency the most. The NBA average is in purple.

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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Looking at the 5 most improved:

1. Blazers: Thanks to Wesley Matthews, Damian Lillard and Nicolas Batum, Portland is second in the NBA in both 3-point attempts and percentage. No one else is hitting more than 10 threes a game. And no other team is hitting 82% of their free throws either.
2. Suns: Phoenix had the 2nd-worst offense in the league last year. Now they're in the top ten. How? Losing Michael Beasley helped (a lot). So did spacing the floor with at least 3 shooters all the time. Gerald Green, Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, Channing Frye and Marcus Morris are each taking at least three 3PA per game - and each is hitting at least 35%. Kudos to Jeff Hornacek.
3. Timberwolves: A healthy Kevin Love. Kevin Martin doing K-Mart things. Nikola Pekovic bruising people inside (53% FG). It's a dynamic offense that also doesn't give away possessions (3rd-lowest turnover rate in the NBA).
4. Wizards: The worst offense in the league last season (and especially brutal without John Wall), Washington is now just slightly below-average. When healthy, they're big, athletic, and can space the floor juuuust enough to succeed.
5. Mavericks: Dirk Nowitzki is back to being his hyper-efficient self. Monta Ellis played out of his mind for the first two months. And Jose Calderon is hitting 47% of his threes. Yowza.

And the 5 teams that have plummeted the most on offense:

1. Knicks: Last year, New York led the league by a mile in 3PA, and had the 5th-best 3p%. This year they're 8th in attempts and 17th in percentage from downtown. So they must be trying to make it up inside, right? Nope: dead last in free throw attempts and 22nd in 2P%. This offense has to be elite to compensate for the Knicks' myriad issues on defense. Right now, it's not even leaue-average.
2. Bucks: Wait, is Milwaukee actually missing Brandon Jennings? I don't know if I'd go that far... except that their three highest-usage players (Brandon Knight, O.J. Mayo and Gary Neal) are shooting a combined 41% on all two-pointers. The guards don't get the ball to John Henson and Giannis Antetokounmpo enough, and the entire team avoids the free-throw line like the plague. Yet somehow, even with that overall passivity, the Bucks have the 5th-highest turnover rate in the league. Also, Gary Neal is one of your three highest-usage players??
3. Lakers: First, without Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant, the Lakers have cratered in offensive rebounding (13th last year, 26th this year) and getting to the line (2nd last year, 14th this time). These are both symptoms of the bigger issue: every possession is a struggle to get a quality shot.
4. Thunder: Turns out it's hard to sustain the most efficient offense in the NBA without Russell Westbrook. And with Kendrick Perkins. And Thabo Sefolosha forgetting how to shoot.
5. Jazz: Given that 5 of the top 6 Jazz players in minutes played are 23 or younger, ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency isn't bad. (The league-worst defense, on the other hand...)

10 great stats from NBAwowy

Here are five quick nuggets from the treasure trove that is NBAwowy.com:

1. With Marc Gasol on the floor, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph have true shooting percentages of 59.5 and 55.1, respectively. Without Marc, those dip to 50.2 and 50.6. Get better soon, Nasty.

2. Just in case you thought (as I suspected) that Monta Ellis' growth this year was mostly from playing alongside Dirk Nowitzki: Monta with Dirk on the floor: 27.9 usage, 53.3 TS%. With Dirk on the bench: 27.5 usage, 59.5 TS%.
3. The Kings are scoring 100 points per 100 possessions with Greivis Vasquez on the floor, which would rank about 20th in the NBA team rankings. Without Vasquez, they're scoring 108.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 2nd in the NBA, just behind the Heat's 108.8.
4. Speaking of Miami, are we still pretending Udonis Haslem is integral to this team? With Udonis on the court, Miami scores 107 pts / 100 possessions and gives up a whopping 118 pts / 100 poss. With Udonis in the cheering section, the Heat outscore opponents 117.5 - 102 per 100 poss. More amazingly, in the 108 minutes that Haslem and LeBron James have played together, the Heat have been outscored by 20 points. UDONIS HASLEM CANCELS OUT LEBRON JAMES!
5. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard have been outstanding for the Blazers, and Wesley Matthews is shooting like Steve Kerr on steroids. But the real MVP for Portland might be Robin Lopez. With Lopez on the court, the Blazers outscore opponents 112-104 per 100 possessions. That's championship-level material. Without him, it's 110-109... basically a .500 team.

How efficient are the NBA's highest-usage players?

Here are the true shooting %'s for the 25 players with the highest usage rates in the NBA right now (min 240 mins played).

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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click here.)

Some takeaways:

• LeBron James is killing the NBA softly with his efficiency. By the way, the modern-era record for TS%  (min 500 FGA) is 70.2%, by Artis Gilmore in 1981-82. The record for non-centers is Cedric Maxwell at just under 68%. LeBron has a great shot at busting that mark - while taking almost 50% more shots than Cornbread did.
• Does Kevin Durant curse the existence of LeBron every day, or is it a weekly ritual? Durant's efficiency is startling and borderline historic... except it's overshadowed by this other guy at every turn. Let's just relish them both.
• Monta Ellis finally does have it all! After posting TS% of 51% and 49% the past two years, Monta is over 59% this year. That's better than Stephen Curry, Tony Parker and Kevin Love. How is this happening? Simply put, he's doing everything better: taking fewer three's, shooting them more efficiently, and getting to the line at a far greater clip than ever before (7 FTA / 36 mins, compared to 4.5 FTA / 36 the past two seasons.) By the way, if this amazing transformation keeps up, this may become one of the strongest points in the Hall of Fame resume of Dirk Nowitzki. (Speaking of Dirk, he just misses the top 25 in usage on this chart, but his TS% is over 60%. That's a hell of a two-headed foundation for an offense.)
• I'm going to excuse Russell Westbrook's inefficiency for now because he's coming back from a serious meniscus injury.He's been over 53% TS each of the past three seasons, and I expect he'll be back there soon.
• What's up with DeMarcus Cousins? After a 28% usage rate last year, he's approaching 35% this year. His shooting isn't horrible, and he's actually passing pretty well (a 16% assist rate), so it'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this new level of volume and efficiency. Has losing Tyreke Evans has been addition by subtraction for DMC?

Where every NBA team scores its points

How many points does each NBA team score near the basket? On long two's? Three pointers? Or at the line?

Here's the chart for every team, broken into six distances on the floor.

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(Chart can also be viewed here.)


Some takeaways:

• Interesting how similar Memphis and Miami look... until you get to 3PT, where Miami scores 26.4 ppg and Memphis clocks in at 13.8 ppg. That's the difference between a potentially  all-time great offense and one with a gaping, probably upside-capping hole.
• It's been often stated how Daryl Morey's vision for Houston's offense is to focus almost exclusively on 3PT, FT, and close-in shots. It sure looks like - with James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Dwight Howard in tow - that vision has been realized. No team in the NBA scores less on shots between 5 ft and the 3-point line than the Rockets, and it's not particularly close.
• Portland is practically the only team that bombs away on long-range two-pointers and still has a potent offense. Why? Primarily because LaMarcus Aldridge is the new Dirk Nowitzki.
• The Spurs are getting only 12 ppg from free throws, lowest in the NBA. The early struggles of Tim Duncan obviously have a lot to do with that. But thanks to Tony Parker, they're killing it close to the rim anyway.
• Speaking of close to the rim... Sixers? 43 ppg inside 5 ft? Last year, Philly was 8th-worst in getting points at that distance. Well done, Michael Carter-Williams and Spencer Hawes (among others).

(Primary data source: nba.com/stats)

Later this week, I'll be back with a look at how efficient teams are from each distance.

LeBron James vs. the other active MVP's

Through 10 seasons, how does the career of LeBron James stack up against the other active MVP's? Here's a look at the year-by-year PER and minutes played for LeBron, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, and Derrick Rose. (Yes, I excluded Steve Nash. Trust me, he doesn't really compare well on a season-by-season basis to these dominant stars.)

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Quick Takeaways:

- Good God, LeBron. The combination of dominance and durability is frightening. On a year-by-year basis, he "wins" 8 of his 10 seasons so far vs. all these other Hall-of-Famers. Even if he starts experiencing a dip within the next year or two and follows the same trendline as others have, he could still be pumping out 26+ PER seasons until at least his mid-30's. Those are MVP caliber seasons. Until his mid-30's. Or later.
- Dirk's peak 4 years were really, really great.
- KG's peak was even (ever so slightly) better.
- I'd argue that Kobe's biggest strength isn't his peak (his two best seasons are lower than LeBron's, Garnett's or Dirk's), but rather how well he's held up in years 12+. It really adds to his legacy when you compare his later years to the other older superstars.
- D-Rose's growth from year 1 to year 3 was unusually strong. Let's hope his (real) year 5 brings more of the same.

I'm going to run this visualization again later in two other ways: once to pit LeBron against current stars like Durant, Dwight and Wade, and then to pit him against all-timers like MJ, Bird, Magic and Hakeem. Let me know if there's anyone in particular you want to see on either of those visualizations.