tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47036300329490822382024-03-19T00:11:02.598-07:00Statcenter | NBA stats, trends and visualizationsNBA stats, visualizations and analysis. Seattle, WA.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-77909194090651146972017-03-07T09:28:00.000-08:002017-03-07T09:29:48.129-08:00Usage vs efficiency for NBA's highest-usage playersHere's how the NBA's 25 highest-usage players stack up in efficiency for the 2016-17 season (as of March 7):<br />
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<div class="tableauPlaceholder" id="viz1488906987152" style="position: relative;">
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It's hard to describe what <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Russell Westbrook</a> is doing, except to say he's simply playing a different sport than everyone else. Has anyone every combined impact and inefficiency to this extent before?
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-51215688025695540862016-06-08T11:17:00.000-07:002016-06-08T11:41:03.374-07:00LeBron is playing playoff minutes like no one... ever<a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">LeBron James</a> has piled up more playoff minutes than anyone ever has through their first 15 seasons. Important: he's only in season 13.<br />
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<script src="https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 860px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/pl/playoffminsplayed15seasons/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="860" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='playoffminsplayed15seasons/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/pl/playoffminsplayed15seasons/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showTabs' value='y' /></object></div>
<br />
<br />
What could possibly make LeBron's tally even more impressive? Consider:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>He's not done with season 13 yet!</li>
<li>James was only 41st in playoff mins through his first five seasons, thanks to missing the playoffs completely his first two years.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-48442046062685117902015-12-08T11:38:00.000-08:002015-12-08T12:13:00.285-08:00Sorry KD and MJ: Steph Curry's redefining efficiencyThrough 22 games, <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a> is on pace to become the most efficient NBA scoring champion in modern NBA history (since 1985-86). Aaaand, it ain't close.<br />
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<br />
<script src="https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 772px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Scoring efficiency of every scoring champion,1986-2016designed by @statcenter ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/NB/NBAscoringchampsefficiency/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="772" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='NBAscoringchampsefficiency/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/NB/NBAscoringchampsefficiency/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showVizHome' value='no' /><param name='showTabs' value='y' /><param name='bootstrapWhenNotified' value='true' /></object></div>
(Having trouble viewing the image? Click <a href="https://public.tableau.com/views/NBAscoringchampsefficiency/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&:showTabs=y&:showVizHome=no#7" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
Some thoughts:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Over the past 30 years, the two gold standards for scoring volume and efficiency have been <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Michael Jordan</a> and <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a>. It's only been 22 games, but Steph is absolutely obliterating them and every other scoring champ. (Also, 22 games is actually a fair sample size when you're looking at something so freakish.)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kobe Bryant</a> '06 was such a force of nature.</li>
<li>That <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/iversal01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Allen Iverson</a> MVP is looking grim in retrospect. Actually, I'm not sure it looked that pretty in the moment either.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-50195440871417358712015-05-04T10:06:00.001-07:002015-05-04T11:49:03.544-07:00The most prolific three-point shooters, 2013-2015You're not going to believe who's at the peak of these charts. #MVP<br />
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<script src="https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 782px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/3P/3PTshooting2013-2015/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="782" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='3PTshooting2013-2015/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/3P/3PTshooting2013-2015/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showVizHome' value='no' /><param name='showTabs' value='y' /><param name='bootstrapWhenNotified' value='true' /></object></div>
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(Having trouble seeing the charts? Click <a href="https://public.tableau.com/views/3PTshooting2013-2015/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:showTabs=y&:display_count=yes">here</a>.)<br />
All stats from <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2013&year_max=2015&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=fg3&c1comp=gt&c1val=400&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=fg3_pct" target="_blank">Basketball Reference</a>. <br />
<br />
Some quick takeaways:<br />
<ul>
<li>Is there any way we can get <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korveky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kyle Korver</a></b> on the same team with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Klay Thompson</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b>? Maybe just for a week or something? Sorry Hawks fans - I'm not trying to antagonize you, I promise. I just want to see my own head explode.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenda02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Danny Green</a></b> is not just A Product Of The Spurs System (TM). He's an amazing shooter with serious flammability potential in any game. </li>
<li>I expected <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Damian Lillard</a></b> to be higher in efficiency. Maybe that's just me.</li>
<li>Some players I didn't expect to see so high: <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Joe Johnson</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">J.R. Smith</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/foyera01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Randy Foye</a></b>.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-50251272782042794472015-04-16T11:40:00.001-07:002015-05-04T09:52:36.668-07:00Threes and frees: James Harden is the all-time kingDaryl Morey's vision for the Rockets is built upon taking and making the most efficient shots on the court: two-pointers at the rim, free throws,and three-point shots. We don't have historical data for layups and dunks, but we can take a look at who's scored the most points from 3PT and FT in a season.<br />
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<script src="https://public.tableau.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 652px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Pt/Ptsfrom3PTandFT/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="742" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableau.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='Ptsfrom3PTandFT/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableau.com/static/images/Pt/Ptsfrom3PTandFT/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /><param name='showVizHome' value='no' /><param name='showTabs' value='y' /><param name='bootstrapWhenNotified' value='true' /></object></div>
<span style="font-size: x-small;">(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click <a href="https://public.tableau.com/views/Ptsfrom3PTandFT/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:showTabs=y&:display_count=yes" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span><br />
<br />
Conclusion: <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b> is Daryl Morey's cyborg.<br />
<br />
It's hard to imagine that just three years ago, it wasn't clear whether or not Harden was worth a max contract. As is often the case, the theme here is fit really matters. Would Harden still be an All-Star in a more conventional offensive scheme? Sure. But would he singlehandedly push the boundaries of shot efficiency? Probably not.<br />
<br />
A couple of other notes:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Harden unseats former teammate <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> from the top spot by ever-so-slightly edging him in both 3PT and FT made. Harden attempted 64 more three's than KD did last season.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/arenagi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Gilbert Arenas</a></b> with two of the top 5 on this list? Yessir. Gil's 2005-06 season is almost identical to Harden this season in terms of 3P% (37.5% vs 36.9%) and 3PA (555 vs 540). But Harden shot much better (and a little more frequently) at the charity stripe.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b> followed up his top-20 all-time finish last season with an even better show this time. All it took to get to the top 10 was nailing 44% of his threes and missing only 29 FTs all season. Read that last sentence again.</li>
<li>The all-time leader without making a single 3PT? That would be <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jerry West</a></b>, with 840 freebies in 1966. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chambwi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Wilt Chamberlain</a></b> is just behind him with 835 free throws made in 1962. Of course, it took Wilt almost 400 more attempts than West.</li>
<li>In case you were wondering: <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> reached his "threes and frees" peak in 2008-09,when he scored 990 combined points from those areas. That's good for 32nd all-time (incidentally, he also has spots 33 and 34 on the list).</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-10234908062097075752014-12-22T11:06:00.000-08:002014-12-22T11:06:55.374-08:00Why Josh Smith just became unemployedI mean, I know it's more complicated than this, but...<br />
<br />
<script src="https://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 629px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://publicrevizit.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Jo/JoshSmithtrueshooting2013-15/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="629" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='JoshSmithtrueshooting2013-15/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://publicrevizit.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Jo/JoshSmithtrueshooting2013-15/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div>
<div style="color: black; font: normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; height: 22px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px; width: 654px;">
<div style="float: right; padding-right: 8px;">
<a href="http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/about-tableau-products?ref=https://public.tableausoftware.com/views/JoshSmithtrueshooting2013-15/Dashboard1" target="_blank">Learn About Tableau</a></div>
</div>
<br />
Thanks for the memories, Detroit <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Josh Smith</a></b>. Your move, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkeke02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kemba Walker</a></b>.<br />
<br />
PS - Yep, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> are really that intergalactic. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b> are pretty friggin' special, too.
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-13777036784174293562014-11-10T14:30:00.000-08:002014-11-10T14:34:59.307-08:00Usage vs efficiency for the new season's top scorersOf course it's early, but...<br />
<br />
Let's take a look at the usage and true shooting percentage for each of the NBA's 20 ppg scorers right now.<br />
<br />
<br />
<script src="https://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 690px; width: 654px;">
<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='https://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Us/Usagevstrueshootingearly2014/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="690" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='https%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='Usagevstrueshootingearly2014/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='https://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Us/Usagevstrueshootingearly2014/Dashboard1/1.png' /> <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div>
<div style="color: black; font: normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif; height: 22px; padding: 0px 10px 0px 0px; width: 654px;">
<div style="float: right; padding-right: 8px;">
<a href="http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/about-tableau-products?ref=https://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Usagevstrueshootingearly2014/Dashboard1" target="_blank">Learn About Tableau</a></div>
</div>
<span style="font-size: small;">(Having trouble seeing the visualization? Click <a href="https://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Usagevstrueshootingearly2014/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)</span><br />
<br />
Some takeaways:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Dear <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b>: if you intend to continue shooting 57% on twos, 41% on threes, and 97% on FT's, can we just time-machine out to May and watch you in the second round of the playoffs? Please?</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kobe Bryant</a></b>... look, his true shooting percentage is 48%. The rest of the Lakers: 56%. Even if you want to argue Kobe's presence frees up space for others, that's an imbalance that simply doesn't mesh with a 38% usage rate.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wroteto01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tony Wroten</a></b>? Tony Wroten! For all of his (and his team's) faults, TW can certainly get to the line (8+ attempts per game). It's a shame he doesn't hit more than 65% of them. That's inexcusable for a guard.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b> is actually tied with Mr. Bryant for the lowest FG% of anyone on the chart. But he's getting to the line an almost comical 10.9 times per game - and hitting 90% of them. Don't let the visceral ugliness of James' game distract from its lethal potency.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com92tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-79512882081263524632014-07-24T15:15:00.000-07:002014-07-24T15:29:39.226-07:00Karl Malone refused to declineHappy birthday, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/malonka01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Karl Malone</a></b>. Most of us know he was a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and that he retired as possibly the greatest power forward of all time. But to me, his greatest legacy has always been that he had arguably the greatest late-career stretch of any player in NBA history. Here's how his age 32-39 years compare to the others who won MVP's in the 1990's - <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Michael Jordan</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/olajuha01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Hakeem Olajuwon</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/robinda01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">David Robinson</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/barklch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Charles Barkley</a></b>.<br />
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Where Malone's peak fits in with the other superstars is debatable. His playoff successes and failures deserve the attention they always seem to attract. But his unparalleled ability to stay at an elite level - it's remarkable and frankly unprecedented, and it should be the first line of his NBA biography.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-26325917423037344522014-04-02T15:33:00.000-07:002014-04-02T15:56:50.605-07:00Who should win Defensive Player of the Year?Since practically the first game of the season, it's seemed like the Defensive Player of the Year award was headed to <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hibbero01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Roy Hibbert</a></b>. And his case remains strong - Indy still leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, and Hibbert's interior presence is the most integral piece of that.<br />
<br />
But there are worthy challengers. I'm going to look at four candidates here - Hibbert, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/noahjo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Joakim Noah</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">DeAndre Jordan</a></b>. (I thought long and hard about other guys, including <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/ibakase01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Serge Ibaka</a></b>, but ultimately I think these four stand above the rest based on a combination of individual and team success.)<br />
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Let's start with some data on one-on-one defense: <br />
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<br />
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In terms of one-on-one defense, Hibbert is clearly the best inside - he's tops in field-goal percentage at the rim, and in isolation plays. But Noah is exceptional covering in space, both against the screener / roller in pick-and-rolls, and guarding spot-up shooters. Not surprisingly, he's also asked to play out in space far more often than Dwight or Roy. That's obviously a function of the defensive scheme, so we're not penalizing Howard or Hibbert for it, but it does point to Noah's versatility.<br />
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Of course, DPOY is (or at least should be) about more than just one-on-one field goal percentage. Next, let's look at how many minutes these guys are actually on the floor, and how they're doing on defensive rebounding (since an opponent's possession isn't over until you secure the ball).<br />
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Hmmm, tough times for Hibbert, and the real strength of Jordan's case. Dwight, Joakim and especially DeAndre all play significantly more minutes than Roy, and are all far better defensive rebounders. This is a bit tricky, because Hibbert's per-game rebounding totals are going to be affected by the presence of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westda01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">David West</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stephla01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Lance Stephenson</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Paul George</a></b>, all of whom rebound at above-average clips for their positions. But the last chart above, based on SportVU data, shows that Hibbert also simply doesn't snare as many rebounds even when he's in prime position (within 3.5 feet of the rim). And his defensive rebounding rates have declined each of the past three seasons, even though West is playing fewer minutes himself this season.<br />
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Finally, let's look at team performance, both with these four on the court and off.<br />
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Yeah, Hibbert and Noah are awesome. They're both taking fantastic defenses to an entirely different level when they're on the court. I'm shocked by Jordan's stats here - the Clips don't exactly roll out stud defenders when DJ goes to the bench. Speaking of stud bench defenders, you have to take Dwight's position on this chart with a generous grain of salt because he's backed up by the superb <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/asikom01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Omer Asik</a></b>. And he's often covering for three minus defenders around him, including <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b>, who went from Thanksgiving to St Patrick's Day without giving a single crap about defense.<br />
<br />
<b>So who should win the Defensive Player of the Year?</b><br />
<br />
Man, is it tough to select one guy. Hibbert is the most dominant defender inside, and the lynchpin of the best overall defense. But he plays the fewest minutes and has really faltered on rebounding. Dwight is still a very good all-around defender, but he's not at the all-time level he set a few years ago in Orlando. And Jordan, while vastly improved in coverage and the league's undisputed best rebounder this year, still has inconsistencies at the rim and in pick-and-roll situations.<br />
<br />
Which leaves us with Noah - the candidate with the fewest blemishes. He defends the entire court exceptionally well, he's been durable, and he's captained the second-best defense in the NBA even after losing ace perimeter defender <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/denglu01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Luol Deng</a></b> mid-season.<br />
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Time to celebrate, Jo!<br />
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Data sources: <a href="http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingRebounding.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=100&sortField=REB_CHANCE&sortOrder=DES" target="_blank">NBA.com/stats</a>, <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_leaders.html" target="_blank">basketball-reference.com</a>, Synergy Sports Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-16900532243935612192014-03-26T11:52:00.001-07:002014-03-26T11:58:28.395-07:00Recent scoring margin + schedule strength for every teamWhen at ESPN, John Hollinger found (not surprisingly) that recent performance mattered more in determining a team's current strength than dated performance from early in the season. He reflected this in his <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking" target="_blank">Power Rankings</a> by including both team scoring margin and strength of schedule (SOS) over their most recent 25% of games, as well as season-long margin and SOS.<br />
<br />
So how does every team stack up right now in recent performance?<br />
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Having trouble seeing this chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/scoringmarginandSOSformostrecentgms3-26-14/Dashboard1?amp;:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
Some takeaways:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It's interesting that so much attention has been paid to the Heat's recent malaise, when the Pacers' woes have been both deeper and more sustained. Indiana is 21st in offensive efficiency for the season as a whole, and bottom-five over the past month. And that's despite paying a Charmin-soft schedule. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Paul George</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hibbero01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Roy Hibbert</a></b> have both really cratered since the first two months. It's not an exaggeration to say this offense is really only good at one thing right now: getting to the free-throw line (and hitting those freebies at an excellent 78% rate). </li>
<li>Most of the teams in the top and right sections won't surprise most viewers, but... holy Bobcats! As Zach Lowe <a href="http://grantland.com/features/the-charlotte-construction-co-bobcats-hornets-rebuilding-nba/" target="_blank">detailed this week</a>, the <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jeffeal01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Al Jefferson</a></b>-fueled offense and a shockingly elite defense have combined to create a real, viable playoff team. This squad won't be an easy out for anyone in the playoffs.</li>
<li>Hmmm, lots of blue circles in the "good areas", and lots of red circles in the bad areas. The gap between the East and West has actually closed just a teensy bit over the past month or so, but it's still ginormous.</li>
<li>I don't know what to say about the Sixers. Their recent scoring margin is an entire standard deviation lower than every other team in the NBA. In case you're not well-versed in statistics, that is comically, awe-inspiringly awful. They're the worst offensive team by a mile, and since the calendar turned to 2014, also the worst defense. Someday <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Michael Carter-Williams</a></b> is going to be part of a really good team, but I suspect he'll still be haunted by nightmares of 2013-14.</li>
</ul>
Data source: <a href="http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/powerranking" target="_blank">Hollinger Power Rankings</a><br />
<ul>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-6884283785161227452014-03-20T12:00:00.000-07:002014-03-20T12:17:25.459-07:00Top dunkers in the NBA this yearWho dunks the most in the NBA? Who misses dunks most often - and who never misses?<br />
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Can't see the charts? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/LeadersindunksanddunkFG/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
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Some takeaways:<br />
<ul>
<li>Shocker: <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">DeAndre Jordan</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Blake Griffin</a></b> both dunk a lot! Slightly bigger shocker: DeAndre also misses a lot of dunks - 26 so far this year, nearly 12% of his attempts. No one else has missed more than 16, which leads us to...</li>
<li>Plumlee! Yes, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlmi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Miles Plumlee</a></b> has thrown it down more this year than <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlma01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Mason Plumlee</a></b>, but Miles has also missed over 15% of his attempts. Mason has missed only 6%.</li>
<li>Go figure: dunks are yet another category where <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> lead the league in efficiency (at least among the 20 leading dunkers).</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Josh Smith</a></b>: 97% FG on dunks, 25% on 3PT. Good thing he's jacked up 150 more three-point attempts than dunk attempts.</li>
<li>Now, if you're looking for dunking perfection (as in never missing), <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezro01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Robin Lopez</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/morrima02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Markieff Morris</a></b> are your men. Meanwhile, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/morrima03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Marcus Morris</a></b> is a modest 10-of-11 on jams this year. (Aside: what's with brothers and dunking?)</li>
</ul>
<br />
By the way, last year's top 5 in dunks: Blake, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b>, DeAndre, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mcgeeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">JaVale McGee</a></b>, and LeBron.<br />
<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ecZyHNgrE5k" width="560"></iframe>
Data source: <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/plus/shot_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=single&year_id=2014&is_playoffs=N&team_id=&opp_id=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=&shot_pts=2&is_make=&shot_type=DUNK&shot_distance_min=&shot_distance_max=&q1=Y&q2=Y&q3=Y&q4=Y&q5=Y&time_remain_minutes=12&time_remain_seconds=0&time_remain_comp=le&margin_min=&margin_max=&c1stat=&c1comp=ge&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=ge&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=ge&c3val=&order_by=fg" target="_blank">basketball-reference.com</a><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-35248805532429705132014-03-11T08:00:00.000-07:002014-03-11T10:52:00.973-07:00How this year's title contenders compare to past NBA championsThere are, by my count, eight legitimate (or semi-legitimate) title contenders in the NBA this year - seven teams that are winning more than 2/3 of their games, plus the Warriors who are 7th in overall efficiency. I wanted to look at how those contenders compare to the past ten NBA champions in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency.<br />
<br />
I'm using offensive (defensive) efficiency index, which basically means comparing each team's points scored (allowed) per 100 possessions to their league average that year. A higher offensive index (and lower defensive index) is better.<br />
<br />
Here we go - and remember, <b>teams want to be as close to the top right corner of this chart as possible</b>:<br />
<script src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
<div class="tableauPlaceholder" style="height: 699px; width: 654px;">
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<div style="float: right; padding-right: 8px;">
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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/OffDefefficiencyforpastchamps2014contenders/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<u><b>Some takeaways:</b></u><br />
<ul>
<li> Everyone considers the 2014 Heat legitimate title contenders - and rightfully so, given their track record and ability to seemingly "turn it on" in the playoffs. (And presumably more minutes for <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wadedw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dwyane Wade</a></b>.) And it seems an increasing number of fans and media are placing the Clippers and Rockets into the contender bucket as well, especially with how well <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Blake Griffin</a></b> played in <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Chris Paul</a></b>'s absence, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b>'s impact on the Rockets' half-court D. But it's worth noting that <b>no champion in the past 10 years as been as average on defense as the 2014 Heat, Clips, or Rockets.</b> Every one of those recent champs was at least 4% better on defense than the league average, and half of them were at least 7% better than average. The Clips are actually tied with the 2006 Heat right now, so it's certainly possible they overtake them soon. Now for the optimists out there, take a gander at those three teams on offense - they're more efficient compared to their peers than any recent champ, except for last year's Heat squad. This year's playoffs could be more offense-first than any recent edition.</li>
<li>Except that Indiana is prominently involved. This year's Pacers aren't LIKE the 2004 Pistons - they ARE the 2004 Pistons. The raw numbers (and the early-season ascent of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/georgpa01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Paul George</a></b>) might mask that fact, but consider how the league has evolved over the past decade. The average team in 2004 scored 102.9 points per 100 possessions, and in no season since then has the average been below 104.6 pts / 100 possessions. This year, the league average is a hair under 106 pts / 100 possessions. When you account for more dynamic offense across the board, Indiana this year looks even better on defense (thanks, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hibbero01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Roy Hibbert</a></b>!) - and even worse on offense.</li>
<li>The Spurs and Thunder. I mean, what is there to say? They've probably been the most impacted by injuries (<b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Russell Westbrook</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Tony Parker</a></b>) of any of this year's top 8, and yet they still sport the best balance of elite offense and really superb defense. I don't think most fans recognize how incredible <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Tim Duncan</a></b> has been on both ends of the court this year - he's top-five in the NBA in both blocks and defensive rebounding while leading the Spurs in total minutes. As for OKC, I'm really intrigued by the proximity of this year's squad to the 2009 Lakers on this chart - that seems like an excellent comp, in terms of one elite scorer (though <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> is more efficient than <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kobe Bryant</a></b> five years ago), an All-Star #2 on offense, and an underrated smothering defense.</li>
<li>Maybe I should stop calling the Blazers a contender. Adjusted for pace
and season, they're less efficient on defense than the "Seven Seconds or
Less" 2006 Suns. And their <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Damian Lillard</a></b>-fueled
offense is outstanding... but still only 4th-best in the NBA. That's
not a recipe for winning two payoff rounds, much less four. </li>
<li>The Warriors, though - OK, they have to make the playoffs first. Fine. But the defense is right in line with championship standards. On the other side of the ledger, raise your hand if you thought a <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b>-led offense would be less relatively efficient than the 2005 Spurs.</li>
</ul>
Data sources: <a href="http://stats.nba.com/leagueTeamGeneral.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=30&columnOrder=&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=Totals&sortField=NET_RATING&sortOrder=DES&Season=2013-14" target="_blank">NBA.com/stats</a>, basketball-reference.comUnknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-35313580234091722762014-02-06T12:10:00.001-08:002014-02-06T12:29:35.929-08:00All-time top scorers through first 7 seasonsSince <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> is in his 7th season, and destroying everyone in his path, it seemed like a good time to ask: how does he stack up against other all-time scorers through their first seven seasons?<br />
<br />
There's an easy way to answer this: just look at the <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=7&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=pts_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=0&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=pts" target="_blank">all-time chart</a>. But... there are a couple of problems with simply looking at total points:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It doesn't account for pace. During <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/chambwi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Wilt Chamberlain</a></b>'s first three seasons, NBA teams averaged 126 possessions per game. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> started his career with teams averaging about 90 possessions per game. We need to account for this enormous difference to get a more accurate barometer of scoring prowess.</li>
<li>Not all seasons have had 82 games. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bayloel01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Elgin Baylor</a></b> played in seasons as short as 75 games, then 75, 79, and 80. Same for Wilt, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Jerry West</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roberos01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Oscar Robertson</a></b>. Meanwhile, Durant got hit with a lockout-shortened season in 2011-12, and obviously hasn't finished this season either.</li>
</ul>
So I adjusted Basketball Reference's numbers to an average-pace season (about 107 possessions per game), and I projected everybody's historical stats to 82 potential games played. (Note: we don't make any such allowance for injury, because that's more within a player's control and not a league-wide phenomenon.)<br />
<br />
Alright, enough chit-chat. Here are the (adjusted) top scorers in NBA history through their first seven seasons.<br />
<br />
<br />
<script src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
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<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/al/all-timetopscorersthrufirst7seasonsadjusted/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="829" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='all-timetopscorersthrufirst7seasonsadjusted/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/al/all-timetopscorersthrufirst7seasonsadjusted/Dashboard1/1.png' / > <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div>
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<div style="float: right; padding-right: 8px;">
<a href="http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/about-tableau-products?ref=http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/all-timetopscorersthrufirst7seasonsadjusted/Dashboard1" target="_blank">Learn About Tableau</a></div>
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(Having trouble seeing this chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/all-timetopscorersthrufirst7seasonsadjusted/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>You can adjust for a lightning-fast pace, or anything else you want, but no one can touch Wilt. He had 21,486 actual points; our adjustments bring him down to under 20K, but he's still more than 1,500 points ahead of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b>.</li>
<li>Actually, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordami01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Michael Jordan</a></b> COULD have approached Wilt, had it not been for missing most of his second season with a broken foot. If you look just at seasons 3-7, Michael had more pace-adjusted points than even Wilt, so it's entirely possible he would've been the greatest scorer ever through 7 seasons.</li>
<li>Durant benefits greatly from the pace adjustment: without it, he would probably end this season about 8th on the list. With the adjustment, he's 4th (and if he scores like a madman the rest of this season, it's conceivable he could move up to 2nd, though it's very unlikely).</li>
<li>By the way, the average league pace during Durant's career has been 92.3. That's the second-slowest of anyone on the list (LeBron's first 7 years averaged a glacial 91.5.)</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/robinda01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">David Robinson</a></b> passes <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/abdulka01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kareem Abdul-Jabbar</a></b> in years 6 and 7 to finish 5th on the list. I knew the Admiral was a great scorer, but I didn't think he'd be the second-best scoring center in history through 7 seasons.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hayesel01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Elvin Hayes</a></b> was actually 2nd in most FGA (and minutes) through his first 7 seasons, behind only Wilt. Alas, with a 44% FG, he doesn't make the top ten in pace-adjusted points.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/malonka01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Karl Malone</a></b>! <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wilkido01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dominique Wilkins</a></b>! The 80's really were a magical time for superstar scorers. (By the way, in case you were wondering, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/birdla01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Larry Bird</a></b> was 15th on the all-time unadjusted list.)</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-20175880483572035452014-01-31T00:05:00.000-08:002014-02-06T10:22:10.099-08:002014 All-Stars and snubs, by PERNow that the NBA All-Star teams have been announced, here's a look at how the 23 players selected (not including the injured <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kobe Bryant</a></b>) have performed this season, as measured by <a href="http://espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2850240">Player Efficiency Rating</a> (PER) and minutes played per game. I've also included 11 players who've been often mentioned as "snubs", at least from the original announced list.<br />
<br />
<script src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
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<noscript><a href='#'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/20/2014All-StarsandsnubsbyPER/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class="tableauViz" height="669" style="display: none;" width="654"><param name='host_url' value='http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='2014All-StarsandsnubsbyPER/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/20/2014All-StarsandsnubsbyPER/Dashboard1/1.png' / > <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div>
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<div style="float: right; padding-right: 8px;">
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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/2014All-StarsandsnubsbyPER/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Is this why they call <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/johnsjo02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Joe Johnson</a></b> "Iso-Joe"? I tweeted this yesterday:</li>
</ul>
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Among players with 1000+ mins played this year, Joe Johnson is 95th in PER, right between Enes Kanter + Jeremy Lamb. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23AllStar&src=hash">#AllStar</a><br />
— statcenter (@statcenter) <a href="https://twitter.com/statcenter/statuses/429062898288459776">January 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
<ul>
<li><script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>But hey, at least they took someone who's young, up-and-coming, on a great team, and throws down <a href="http://ballislife.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/tumblr_mxdl2qSeaW1qc9n6mo1_1280-638x1024.jpg" target="_blank">thrilling dunks</a>. Give the people what they want, Joe!</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Ignore <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hibbero01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Roy Hibbert</a></b> in the bottom left. PER understates defense, and Hibbert is running away with the Defensive Player of the Year vote, at least at the halfway point.</li>
<li>The only semi-plausible reason I've heard for excluding <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Anthony Davis</a></b> is the time he missed due to injury. But the thing is... he's played more total minutes than Dwayne Wade, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">DeMarcus Cousins</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Tony Parker</a></b> or <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Chris Paul</a></b>. If he's not Adam Silver's pick to replace Kobe, I'd be shocked. Then again, Joe Johnson.</li>
<li>I honestly feel for Cousins, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Goran Dragic</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/conlemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Mike Conley</a></b> being left out, and I double-feel for <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lowryky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kyle Lowry</a></b>, who should be sticking pins in a Johnson Nets voodoo doll right about... now. The only consolation is that voters tend to remember the snubs the following year if they maintain their torrid play. Those young guys are likely to be rewarded, just a year late.</li>
<li>I understand <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/stephla01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Lance Stephenson</a></b> is on an exceptional team, and that he's often the offensive fulcrum for the Pacers. I would've had no problem with him over <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/derozde01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">DeMar DeRozan</a></b>, though it's close and I'm OK with it either way. But I wouldn't take Lance over Lowry, who's been a better scorer and floor general, and is probably about equal defensively.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lawsoty01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Ty Lawson</a></b>, anyone? Anyone? </li>
</ul>
And finally, just a friendly reminder...<br />
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<ul>
</ul>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en">
Joe Johnson over Kyle Lowry is a complete joke.<br />
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZachLowe_NBA/statuses/429045076426514432">January 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async="" charset="utf-8" src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-47041252840865644422014-01-30T12:14:00.000-08:002014-01-30T12:26:27.780-08:00Kevin Durant vs. LeBron James, game by gameHere's a look at how <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> have progressed throughout the 2013-14 season, as measured by average overall Game Score. (Game Score was created by <a href="http://www.twitter.com/johnhollinger" target="_blank"> John Hollinger</a><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null"> </a>to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (25 is an excellent performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.) <br />
<br />
<script type='text/javascript' src='http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js'></script><div class='tableauPlaceholder' style='width: 654px; height: 629px;'><noscript><a href='http://statcenter.blogspot.com/2014/01/kevin-durant-vs-lebron-james-game-by.html'><img alt='Dashboard 1 ' src='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Du/DurantvsLeBronavggamescore2013-14/Dashboard1/1_rss.png' style='border: none' /></a></noscript><object class='tableauViz' width='654' height='629' style='display:none;'><param name='host_url' value='http%3A%2F%2Fpublic.tableausoftware.com%2F' /> <param name='site_root' value='' /><param name='name' value='DurantvsLeBronavggamescore2013-14/Dashboard1' /><param name='tabs' value='no' /><param name='toolbar' value='yes' /><param name='static_image' value='http://public.tableausoftware.com/static/images/Du/DurantvsLeBronavggamescore2013-14/Dashboard1/1.png' / > <param name='animate_transition' value='yes' /><param name='display_static_image' value='yes' /><param name='display_spinner' value='yes' /><param name='display_overlay' value='yes' /><param name='display_count' value='yes' /></object></div><div style='width:654px;height:22px;padding:0px 10px 0px 0px;color:black;font:normal 8pt verdana,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;'><div style='float:right; padding-right:8px;'><a href='http://www.tableausoftware.com/public/about-tableau-products?ref=http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/DurantvsLeBronavggamescore2013-14/Dashboard1' target='_blank'>Learn About Tableau</a></div></div>
<br />
(Having trouble seeing this chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/DurantvsLeBronavggamescore2013-14/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-73671638110980670992014-01-22T11:19:00.002-08:002014-01-24T10:48:04.992-08:00Driving to the basket: Who's the best?Here are the 25 NBA players (through Jan 20) who drive to the basket the most, mapped against their FG% on those drives. (NBA.com defines drives as "any touch that starts at least 20 feet from the hoop and is dribbled within 10 feet of the hoop and excludes fast breaks.")<br />
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(Having trouble seeing this chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Leadersindrivespergame/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
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<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>In terms of sheer volume of drives, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Tony Parker</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lawsoty01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Ty Lawson</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Monta Ellis</a></b> are in a class by themselves. They also produce quality along with that quantity, albeit each in different ways. Lawson is excellent at finishing, but even better at setting up teammates with drive-and-kicks; no one in the NBA produces more team points directly from drives than Ty's 13.1 ppg. Parker, with his array of floaters and either-hand layups and scoops, is the best pure finisher of the trio. And Monta is the best (this year, at least) at drawing fouls from drives. He's actually leading the league with 8.0 individual ppg from drives.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Jeremy Lin</a></b>, everybody! This chart highlights Lin's biggest strength - the ability to drive and finish creatively. He may be a third guard at this point, but what a third guard. By the way, look at Lin, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parsoch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Chandler Parsons</a></b> all bunched together on this chart. They're combining for 22 drives per game, shooting a combined 53% on those drives, and obviously hitting each other for open threes along the way. That's an incredibly efficient, dynamic foundation for an offense... especially with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b> waiting inside.</li>
<li>Maybe <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> should be driving to the basket more? Maybe we could say the same (to a lesser extent) about <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b>? The truth is, of course, that even for the two best drive-finishers in the game, it's a bit more complicated than that. Driving takes energy, and it's hard to achieve when the entire defense is focused on you. I expect both of them will penetrating a lot more in the playoffs. They'll be playing more minutes, and playing those minutes with Dwayne Wade and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Russell Westbrook</a></b>, respectively, should open up the court.</li>
<li>Five of the six lowest on this chart in terms of FG% are quick guards who aren't necessarily known for their strength (except perhaps <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/waitedi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Dion Waiters</a></b>, but he has the separate problem of not actually knowing how to play basketball). That's not to say guys like <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Brandon Jennings</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/teaguje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Jeff Teague</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walkeke02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Kemba Walker</a></b> aren't valuable on drives, but that they're a little easier to control from a team defense perspective than guards like Parker and Lawson.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">Damian Lillard</a></b> isn't far from being the perfect offensive point guard, and he's already at the helm of the best offense in the NBA right now. But his troubles finishing drives are probably his biggest limitation right now. If he can improve to just league-average at that, combined with Portland's other three-point shooters and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com" target="_blank">LaMarcus Aldridge</a></b> draining shots from the elbow and post... oof. Good luck stopping that.</li>
</ul>
<b>UPDATE: </b>A Tableau user named "RS" extended my data by looking at teammate points per drive and overall points generated. Check out his / her awesome work <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/201401Drives/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=yes#1" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<ul>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-78718025359731652642014-01-17T12:04:00.001-08:002014-01-17T13:05:47.578-08:00The five most improved NBA offenses - and five that have plummetedHere's a chart of how every team's offensive efficiency has changed from 2012-13 to 2013-14, as measured by points scored per 100 possessions. (Through the games of Jan 16. Thanks to NBA.com/stats for the data.) The five teams in green have shown the most improvement, while the five in orange have decreased efficiency the most. The NBA average is in purple.<br />
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<br />
Looking at the 5 most improved:<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Blazers: </b>Thanks to <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/matthwe02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Wesley Matthews</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Damian Lillard</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/batumni01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Nicolas Batum</a></strong>, Portland is second in the NBA in both 3-point attempts and percentage. No one else is hitting more than 10 threes a game. And no other team is hitting 82% of their free throws either.</li>
<li><b>Suns: </b>Phoenix had the 2nd-worst offense in the league last year. Now they're in the top ten. How? Losing <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/beaslmi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Michael Beasley</a></strong> helped (a lot). So did spacing the floor with at least 3 shooters all the time. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenge01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Gerald Green</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bledser01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Eric Bledsoe</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Goran Dragic</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/f/fryech01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Channing Frye</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/morrima03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Marcus Morris</a></strong> are each taking at least three 3PA per game - and each is hitting at least 35%. Kudos to <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hornaje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Jeff Hornacek</a></strong>. </li>
<li><b>Timberwolves: </b>A healthy <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Kevin Love</a></strong>. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/martike02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Kevin Martin</a></strong> doing K-Mart things. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/pekovni01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Nikola Pekovic</a></strong> bruising people inside (53% FG). It's a dynamic offense that also doesn't give away possessions (3rd-lowest turnover rate in the NBA).</li>
<li><b>Wizards: </b>The worst offense in the league last season (and especially brutal without <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/walljo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">John Wall</a></strong>), Washington is now just slightly below-average. When healthy, they're big, athletic, and can space the floor juuuust enough to succeed.</li>
<li><b>Mavericks: </b><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Dirk Nowitzki</a></strong> is back to being his hyper-efficient self. <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Monta Ellis</a></strong> played out of his mind for the first two months. And <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/caldejo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Jose Calderon</a></strong> is hitting 47% of his threes. Yowza.</li>
</ol>
And the 5 teams that have plummeted the most on offense:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Knicks: </b>Last year, New York led the league by a mile in 3PA, and had the 5th-best 3p%. This year they're 8th in attempts and 17th in percentage from downtown. So they must be trying to make it up inside, right? Nope: dead last in free throw attempts and 22nd in 2P%. This offense has to be elite to compensate for the Knicks' myriad issues on defense. Right now, it's not even leaue-average.</li>
<li><b>Bucks:</b> Wait, is Milwaukee actually missing <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Brandon Jennings</a></strong>? I don't know if I'd go that far... except that their three highest-usage players (<strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/knighbr03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Brandon Knight</a></strong>, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mayooj01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">O.J. Mayo</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nealga01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Gary Neal</a></strong>) are shooting a combined 41% on all two-pointers. The guards don't get the ball to <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hensojo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">John Henson</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/antetgi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Giannis Antetokounmpo</a></strong> enough, and the entire team avoids the free-throw line like the plague. Yet somehow, even with that overall passivity, the Bucks have the 5th-highest turnover rate in the league. Also, Gary Neal is one of your three highest-usage players??</li>
<li><b>Lakers:</b> First, without <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Dwight Howard</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Kobe Bryant</a></strong>, the Lakers have cratered in offensive rebounding (13th last year, 26th this year) and getting to the line (2nd last year, 14th this time). These are both symptoms of the bigger issue: every possession is a struggle to get a quality shot.</li>
<li><b>Thunder: </b>Turns out it's hard to sustain the most efficient offense in the NBA without <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Russell Westbrook</a></strong>. And with <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/perkike01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Kendrick Perkins</a></strong>. And <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sefolth01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.basketball-reference.com">Thabo Sefolosha</a></strong> forgetting how to shoot. </li>
<li><b>Jazz: </b>Given that 5 of the top 6 Jazz players in minutes played are 23 or younger, ranking 23rd in offensive efficiency isn't bad. (The league-worst defense, on the other hand...)</li>
</ol>
<ol>
</ol>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-89548555708096395032014-01-10T12:13:00.001-08:002014-01-14T11:51:04.559-08:00The masters of getting to the free-throw lineHere's a chart of the 25 players who are getting to the free throw line the most this season (as measured by FTA / 36 minutes), and how they're doing once they get there.<br />
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<br />
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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/PlayerswithmostFTAper36mins/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
Some takeaways:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Perhaps nothing illustrates the growth on offense of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">DeMarcus Cousins</a></b> better than this: in each of his first three seasons in the NBA, Cousins averaged between 6 and 7 FTA / 36 minutes. This year, he's the only qualified player in the NBA averaging over 10 FTA / 36. He's hitting 71% right now, right in line with his career average. If he can pull that up to 75% or higher... good golly, how do you stop him?</li>
<li>LOL <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b>. Let's start with the good news: he still gets to the charity stripe a ton, and he's hitting free throws at a higher rate than in either of his past two seasons. So that's nice. On the other hand, he's missed 154 FTA so far. No one else on this chart has missed more than 86 (<b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Blake Griffin</a></b>). Dwight has missed 25 more FTA than <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Durant</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b>, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Love</a></b> combined, and that trio has taken 550 more total attempts than Howard.</li>
<li>Speaking of Durant, he's one made 3P and four FT away from shooting 50% 2P / 40% 3P / 90% FT. Amazingly, each of those percentages is actually down from last season.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> started the season red-hot (by his standards) from the stripe, shooting almost 80% through the end of November. Since then, however, he's been just a shade over 70%. His career average is 75%.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/wroteto01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tony Wroten</a></b>? Tony Wroten! Philly has to be delighted that he (and his backcourt mate <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Carter-Williams</a>) </b>are able to get to the line at will, especially when both are still under 21 and barely understand NBA offense. Unfortunately both of them are among the five worst on this chart at hitting their freebies. By the way, Wroten hit 72% last season in Memphis, but his 58% mark this year is exactly in line with what he shot in his lone college season, so I'm going to consider last year the outlier until further notice.</li>
<li>Check out the teams that have a pair of players on this list, and how they rank in offensive efficiency. The Rockets (with Harden and Dwight) are 4th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. The Wolves (Love and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/martike02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Martin</a></b>) are 5th, the Clips (Blake and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/paulch01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Chris Paul</a></b>) are 7th, the Pelicans (<b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/davisan02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Anthony Davis</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/evansty01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tyreke Evans</a></b>) are 8th, and the Suns (<b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dragigo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Goran Dragic</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bledser01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Eric Bledsoe</a></b>) are 10th. Even the less-heralded Hawks (<b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/teaguje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeff Teague</a></b> and the ever-professional <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millspa01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Paul Millsap</a></b>) are 13th. That's not a coincidence - if you can consistently run two-man actions in the half-court that get you free points, you're well on your way to a powerful offense.</li>
<li>And finally, I can't not mention Swaggy P. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/y/youngni01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Nick Young</a></b> is getting to the line on a career-best 32% of his FG attempts, which is propelling him to a career mark in true shooting percentage as well. I understand the numerous criticisms of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dantomi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike D'Antoni</a></b> - many of which are valid - but he's demonstrating again an amazing ability to put limited role players in a position to succeed on offense.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-58322748089399329522013-12-11T12:51:00.000-08:002013-12-11T12:51:35.286-08:00The top three-point shooting duos in the NBAIn today's NBA, virtually every team wants at least two (and preferably more) long-range shooters on the floor at all times. This opens up space inside for both post players and drivers, which can boost free throw rates and overall offensive efficiency as a result.<br />
<br />
So which team has the best duo of three-point shooters?<br />
<br />
I mapped 3P% vs 3PA/gm for each team's top two shooters, measured by total 3PA. (I put a minimum of 3.5 attempts/gm for each player, so if your favorite team isn't listed here, it's because you didn't have two players who met that criteria.)<br />
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<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It will surprise absolutely no one to see the Splash Brothers near the top-right of this chart. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Klay Thompson</a></b> are just doing their usual record-breaking thing (though Curry's 41.3% is really dragging his teammate down).</li>
<li>But how about Portland? <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/matthwe02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wesley Matthews</a></b> continues to shoot out of his mind, and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Damian Lillard</a></b> may already be the second-best shooting lead guard in the league.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korveky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kyle Korver</a></b> is shooting precisely 50% on threes. I just... I mean... it's the only thing he really does, and teams still have no answer for it.</li>
<li>I love the way that <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/dantomi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Mike D'Antoni</a></b> has deployed <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/meeksjo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jodie Meeks</a></b> (46% from 3PT) and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/blakest01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Steve Blake</a></b>, as well as <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willish03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Shawne Williams</a></b> and others, in his early-in-the-shot-clock, long-distance attack. It'll be interesting to see how this changes, in both volume and efficiency, with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kobe Bryant</a></b>'s return.</li>
<li>The fact that the Celtics with frickin' <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/crawfjo02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jordan Crawford</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenje02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeff Green</a></b> are in the top left of this chart may be the strongest data point yet for Brad Stevens' Coach of the Year candidacy.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/allenra02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ray Allen</a></b>: under 39% so far. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/battish01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Shane Battier</a></b>: hovering around 30%. These will improve - well at least Ray is guaranteed to, since he's a cyborg. And when they do, Miami's <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b>-fueled, record-pace offense may get even better.</li>
<li>You knew the Pistons were going to suck here, correct?What you may not have realized is that <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Jennings</a></b> is actually up to a respectable 36% from three-land. <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Smith</a></b> is at 27%. And has already chucked up 100 attempts, and is showing no signs of slowing down. (More on Smoove in the day ahead.)</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-76096839117330287172013-12-05T11:56:00.002-08:002013-12-05T11:58:34.729-08:0010 great stats from NBAwowyHere are five quick nuggets from the treasure trove that is <a href="http://nbawowy.com/">NBAwowy.com</a>:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>With <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gasolma01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Marc Gasol</a></strong> on the floor, <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/conlemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Mike Conley</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/randoza01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Zach Randolph</a></strong> have true shooting percentages of 59.5 and 55.1, respectively. Without Marc, those dip to 50.2 and 50.6. Get better soon, Nasty.</li>
</ol>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.interbasket.net/news/wp-content/gallery/nba-media-day-2009-10/marc-gasol.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="http://www.interbasket.net/news/wp-content/gallery/nba-media-day-2009-10/marc-gasol.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<ol start="2">
<li>Just in case you thought (as I suspected) that <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Monta Ellis</a></strong>' growth this year was mostly from playing alongside <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Dirk Nowitzki</a></strong>: Monta with Dirk on the floor: 27.9 usage, 53.3 TS%. With Dirk on the bench: 27.5 usage, 59.5 TS%.</li>
<li>The Kings are scoring 100 points per 100 possessions with <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/vasqugr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Greivis Vasquez</a></strong> on the floor, which would rank about 20th in the NBA team rankings. Without Vasquez, they're scoring 108.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 2nd in the NBA, just behind the Heat's 108.8.</li>
<li>Speaking of Miami, are we still pretending <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hasleud01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Udonis Haslem</a></strong> is integral to this team? With Udonis on the court, Miami scores 107 pts / 100 possessions and gives up a whopping 118 pts / 100 poss. With Udonis in the cheering section, the Heat outscore opponents 117.5 - 102 per 100 poss. More amazingly, in the 108 minutes that Haslem and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">LeBron James</a></strong> have played together, the Heat have been outscored by 20 points. UDONIS HASLEM CANCELS OUT LEBRON JAMES!</li>
<li><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">LaMarcus Aldridge</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Damian Lillard</a></strong> have been outstanding for the Blazers, and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/matthwe02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Wesley Matthews</a></strong> is shooting like <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/kerrst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Steve Kerr</a></strong> on steroids. But the real MVP for Portland might be <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lopezro01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Robin Lopez</a></strong>. With Lopez on the court, the Blazers outscore opponents 112-104 per 100 possessions. That's championship-level material. Without him, it's 110-109... basically a .500 team.</li>
</ol>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-62884332572312980722013-12-03T11:55:00.000-08:002013-12-03T12:03:04.339-08:00The best rebounders in the NBA, featuring Andre DrummondWho are the best rebounders in the NBA? Looking at rebounds per game gets us a partial answer, but it doesn't account for a couple of important factors. First, different players get different numbers of opportunities for rebounds. Second, not all rebounds are created equal. Some are uncontested, while others are <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Epg9vBZOvE&feature=player_detailpage#t=28" target="_blank">most definitely not</a>.<br />
<br />
The two charts below should give us some more insight. The top chart maps rebounding chances per game against the percentage of those chances that actually get rebounded. (We're including every player who gets at least 14 chances per game.) The second chart looks at the leaders in rebounds per 36 minutes, and breaks those rebounds into uncontested (in purple) and contested (in orange). NBA.com defines "contested" as those rebounds where an opponent is within 3.5 feet of the rebound.<br />
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<br />
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Having trouble viewing the chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Reboundingchancesvsrebs/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It's probably premature to say definitively that <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/drumman01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Andre Drummond</a></b> is the best rebounder in the NBA. But... not by much. He's leading all 29 players in the top chart by pulling in a whopping 73% of rebounding chances. If he's near the ball, he's getting it. Even more impressively, he's doing it the hard way - he's second in total rebounds / 36 mins, and has more contested rebounds AND fewer uncontested rebounds than any of the other top 9 players in that category. What a beast. Oh, did I mention he turned 20 this summer?</li>
<li>When it comes to board work, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Love</a></b> dishes out quality and quantity. He's averaging over 21 rebounding chances per game - nobody else in the game earns over 18 chances. That's proof of both his ability to stay on the floor and his incredible nose for the ball. </li>
<li>If Drummond is the best young rebounder in the game, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">DeMarcus Cousins</a></b> certainly isn't far behind.</li>
<li>Only 29% of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b>'s rebounds this season are contested, compared to 44% for Drummond and 41% for <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jordade01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">DeAndre Jordan</a></b>. I have no idea what to make of this, honestly.</li>
<li>Speaking of Jordan, his improvement on the boards from past seasons has been remarkable. It's partly because he's staying on the floor, playing over 35 mpg after never even breaking 29 mpg in previous season. But he's also grabbing far more rebounds on a per-36-minutes basis (13.0 this year, compared to a career average of 10.8). Combined with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/griffbl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Blake Griffin</a></b>'s usual rebounding excellence, the Clips at least have a solid 1-2 punch inside. (Too bad they also have the not-so-solid 3-4-5 punch of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/holliry01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Ryan Hollins</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamisan01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Antawn Jamison</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mulleby01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Byron Mullens</a></b>.)</li>
<li>Shout out to <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/anthoca01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Carmelo Anthony</a></b>, grabbing almost 70% of his rebounding chances. He's easily setting new career highs in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates, which is doubly impressive given his sky-high usage rate.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/varejan01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Anderson Varejao</a></b>. Struggling.</li>
</ul>
(Primary data source: <a href="http://stats.nba.com/playerTrackingRebounding.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25" target="_blank">NBA.com/stats</a>)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-88491437539880216072013-11-26T11:36:00.003-08:002013-11-26T11:45:20.514-08:00How efficient are the NBA's highest-usage players?Here are the <a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/glossary.html#ts_pct" target="_blank">true shooting %'s</a> for the 25 players with the highest usage rates in the NBA right now (min 240 mins played).<br />
<br />
<script src="http://public.tableausoftware.com/javascripts/api/viz_v1.js" type="text/javascript"></script><br />
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(Having trouble seeing the chart? Click <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/TSfor25highest-usageplayers/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<ul>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">LeBron James</a></b> is killing the NBA softly with his efficiency. By the way, the modern-era record for TS% (min 500 FGA) is 70.2%, by <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/gilmoar01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Artis Gilmore</a></b> in 1981-82. The record for non-centers is <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/maxwece01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Cedric Maxwell</a></b> at just under 68%. LeBron has a great shot at busting that mark - while taking almost 50% more shots than Cornbread did.</li>
<li>Does <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Kevin Durant</a></strong> curse the existence of LeBron every day, or is it a weekly ritual? Durant's efficiency is startling and borderline historic... except it's overshadowed by this other guy at every turn. Let's just relish them both.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/ellismo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Monta Ellis</a></b> finally does <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7G9yS2-x5sA" target="_blank">have it all</a>! After posting TS% of 51% and 49% the past two years, Monta is over 59% this year. That's better than <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tony Parker</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/loveke01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kevin Love</a></b>. How is this happening? Simply put, he's doing everything better: taking fewer three's, shooting them more efficiently, and getting to the line at a far greater clip than ever before (7 FTA / 36 mins, compared to 4.5 FTA / 36 the past two seasons.) By the way, if this amazing transformation keeps up, this may become one of the strongest points in the Hall of Fame resume of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dirk Nowitzki</a></b>. (Speaking of Dirk, he just misses the top 25 in usage on this chart, but his TS% is over 60%. That's a hell of a two-headed foundation for an offense.)</li>
<li>I'm going to excuse <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/westbru01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Russell Westbrook</a></b>'s inefficiency for now because he's coming back from a serious meniscus injury.He's been over 53% TS each of the past three seasons, and I expect he'll be back there soon.</li>
<li>What's up with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/couside01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">DeMarcus Cousins</a></b>? After a 28% usage rate last year, he's approaching 35% this year. His shooting isn't horrible, and he's actually passing pretty well (a 16% assist rate), so it'll be interesting to see if he can sustain this new level of volume and efficiency. Has losing <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/e/evansty01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tyreke Evans</a></b> has been addition by subtraction for DMC?</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-91091027189915786922013-11-20T11:38:00.000-08:002013-11-20T11:55:04.599-08:00Leaders in three-point attempts: how well are they shooting?Here are the top 30 players in 3PA /game so far in 2013-14, plotted against their 3P% (minimum 6 games played):<br />
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<br />
(You can also see the chart <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/Leadersin3-pointattempts/Sheet1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways: </b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>It's old hat at this point to bow to the awesomeness of the <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompkl01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Klay Thompson</a></b> - <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/curryst01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Stephen Curry</a></b> duo in Golden State. Everyone knows they can shoot. But then you see a chart like this, and... holy hell. Every good team has its unique advantages. The Warriors' unique advantage is a nuclear jetpack.</li>
<li>One of the keys to Portland's blazing start: check out <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Damian Lillard</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/matthwe02.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Wesley Matthews</a></b> on this chart. Wes' current accuracy is unsustainable, but he can drop by 6-8 percentage points, be close to his career marks, and still be an ace safety valve for Lillard and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">LaMarcus Aldridge</a></b>.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/k/korveky01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Kyle Korver</a></b> is approaching 500 3PA during his time in Atlanta. He's currently shooting 46.3% on those 450+ attempts. So, yes, not a fluke.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b>'s 3P% the past three seasons: 39% (last season in OKC), 36.8% last year, 31.5% this year. His attempts / game: 4.7, 6.2, 6.6.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smithjo03.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Josh Smith</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jennibr01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Brandon Jennings</a></b> are combining to jack up over 10 3PA / gm. The better of the two is shooting 32%. Spacing problems? What spacing problems?</li>
<li>It'll be interesting to see where guys like <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/mayooj01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">O.J. Mayo</a></strong> and <strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/meeksjo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">Jodie Meeks</a></strong> end up. Both are blowing away their past performance, but on the other hand, both have also changed their responsibilities this year, and that may account for some of the improvement. We'll see how much proves sustainable.</li>
</ul>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-84401485541356871632013-11-19T12:22:00.001-08:002013-11-19T12:41:39.551-08:00Where every NBA team scores its pointsHow many points does each NBA team score near the basket? On long two's? Three pointers? Or at the line?<br />
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Here's the chart for every team, broken into six distances on the floor.<br />
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<br />
(Chart can also be viewed <a href="http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/locationofeveryteampoints/Dashboard1?:embed=y&:display_count=no" target="_blank">here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Interesting how similar Memphis and Miami look... until you get to 3PT, where Miami scores 26.4 ppg and Memphis clocks in at 13.8 ppg. That's the difference between a potentially all-time great offense and one with a gaping, probably upside-capping hole.</li>
<li>It's been often stated how Daryl Morey's vision for Houston's offense is to focus almost exclusively on 3PT, FT, and close-in shots. It sure looks like - with <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">James Harden</a></b>, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/linje01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Jeremy Lin</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/howardw01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dwight Howard</a></b> in tow - that vision has been realized. No team in the NBA scores less on shots between 5 ft and the 3-point line than the Rockets, and it's not particularly close. </li>
<li>Portland is practically the only team that bombs away on long-range two-pointers and still has a potent offense. Why? Primarily because <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">LaMarcus Aldridge</a></b> is the new <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Dirk Nowitzki</a></b>.</li>
<li>The Spurs are getting only 12 ppg from free throws, lowest in the NBA. The early struggles of <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duncati01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tim Duncan</a></b> obviously have a lot to do with that. But thanks to <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parketo01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Tony Parker</a></b>, they're killing it close to the rim anyway.</li>
<li>Speaking of close to the rim... Sixers? 43 ppg inside 5 ft? Last year, Philly was 8th-worst in getting points at that distance. Well done, <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartemi01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Michael Carter-Williams</a></b> and <b><a href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hawessp01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com" target="_blank">Spencer Hawes</a></b> (among others).</li>
</ul>
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<i>(Primary data source: nba.com/stats)
</i><br />
<br />
Later this week, I'll be back with a look at how efficient teams are from each distance.<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4703630032949082238.post-52772731207958432442013-11-06T12:56:00.004-08:002013-11-06T14:52:29.095-08:00LaMarcus Aldridge is the Godzilla of mid-range<span style="font-size: small;"><i>(Primary data source: <a href="http://stats.nba.com/leaguePlayerShots.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&sortField=FGAZone3&sortOrder=DES&DistanceRange=By%20Zone&PerMode=PerGame&Season=2013-14" target="_blank">NBA.com/stats</a>) </i></span><br />
<br />
Through the first few games of this season, here are the 25 players who've taken the most mid-range FGA per game, mapped vs their fg% on those attempts.<br />
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<b>Some takeaways:</b><br />
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<li><strong><a target="_blank" href="http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aldrila01.html?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.blogger.com">LaMarcus Aldridge</a></strong> led the NBA in mid-range attempts last season as well... but that was with 10 attempts per game, and hitting (a still very solid) 43% of them. What he's done early this year in terms of both volume and accuracy is otherworldly. And frankly, unguardable. Pray for regression to the mean, future Blazers opponents.</li>
<li>Obviously, it's VERY early, so I discount the FG%'s pretty significantly if they're out of whack with what a player has historically done (cough, Monta, cough).</li>
<li>The number of attempts is probably more meaningful because it may tell us something about the player, their team's offensive scheme, or both. For example, the fact that Charlotte has two players chucking a ton of mid-range shots might be related to their offensive philosophy, and is almost definitely correlated to them being 27th in points / 100 possessions right now. Eh, I'm sure they'll figure it out.</li>
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